Comet and Asteroid Impact Hazards on a Populated Earth
Comet and Asteroid Impact Hazards explores the anticipated consequences of comet and asteroid impact. It presents the first computer simulations of the hazards of comet and asteroid bombardment of a populated Earth. Previous estimates of fatality and damage rates on the 100 to 10,000 year time scale are shown to be too low because they neglect rare, highly lethal outriders of the populations of bombarding objects, those with exceptional strength, unusually low entry velocity, and near-horizontal entry angles. This is the first realistic assessment of both the mean casualty rate and the expected statistical fluctuations in that rate. A breakdown of fatality and damage rates by impactor energy and compositional class suggests lessons for both asteroid search strategies and interdiction techniques. This book is written so that anyone with college level experience in the physical sciences can understand it. It includes a disk that allows the reader to simulate impact catastrophes. It serves as a useful resource in various physical sciences courses such as astronomy, planetary science, and environmental science. * Quantatively rigorous treatment of the state of impact hazard prediction, including stuctural blast damage, firestorm ignition, tsunami generation * Realistic treatment of the impact on population, composition, and orbits * Attention to economic and public policy issues of warning, interdiction, and asteroid and comet search strategies * Comparison of simulation results to historical records * Detailed and realistic Monte Carlo simulation software included
Simulate asteroid and comet impacts on your PC
By Michael Paine - December 6, 1999
This book by Planetary Scientist John Lewis includes a diskette with a Monte Carlo program to run simulations of Earth impacts over time. The book is basically a handbook for the software with a wide range of physical information about NEOs, impacts and effects on the human population. An excellent resource covering physics, chemistry and environment. I can recommend it to anyone studying the possible influence of impacts on civilisation. Over thousands of years airburst events like Tunguska turn out to be important sources of fatalities and yet they leave little or no physical evidence so information about the danger is unlikely to be reliably passed from generation to generation.Note that the program requires GW-BASIC to run To run the program in a higher version of BASIC such as Quick Basic you will need to convert it from binary to ASCII format from within GW-BASIC. To do this load the program in GW-BASIC (F3 path/filename.BAS) then save it with the ASCII option set... read more
Excellent Book but the Software presents a Hassle
By Michael A. Jayjock - November 20, 2000
The text is an excellent and scholarly treatment of the subject. Itis very detailed, quite factual, thoughtfully constructed and verythought provocating. It generates a lot of interest in the includedMonte Carlo impact/fatality model. Unfortunately, the attached model program is very difficult to use. It is written in native GW-BASIC which can only be read by GW-Basic running under DOS (not a Windows shell). One needs to find a copy of GWBASIC and a DOS boot disk to convert HAZARD5.BAS to ASCII format. Once in ASCII it will run in the more common QBASIC in Windows. In short, it presents an unnecessary hassle. Indeed, there were no instructions to do the conversion and Michael Paine and his web site .... came to the rescue with detailed instructions and some refinements to the model.
By Van. - September 13, 2000
Dr. Lewis makes a compelling case for the reappraisal of comet and asteroid impacts. This book is lucid, sharp, and, well, SCARY. I strongly recommend it to all readers curious about these potentially cataclysmic events; when you understand the energy involved in one of these impacts, and the effects on human populations it becomes clear that we are currently just as vulnerable as the dinosaurs were 65 million years ago. I also recommend Rain of Iron and Ice for the popular science audience. It is an equally compelling, and also entertaining, read. Worth every penny.
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