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This book advises twenty-somethings to put not just 100% of their retirement savings in stocks, but 200%. 2:1 leverage. Young workers, they say, should buy twice as much stock as they can afford, either by buying on margin, or, since the law (which the authors would like to change) prohibits buying on margin in a retirement account, by using "deep-in-the-money LEAP call options." Either way, 2008 would have wiped out everything they had saved, but this, the authors say, is to be expected from time to time and is no big deal in their simulated total-lifecycle statistics. Young workers don't have very much saved, so a total wipeout isn't much of a loss in dollars, and they have enough time to start all over and save it all again.
Before you try this, be aware of some red flags.
Red flags #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6 come from Ayres and Nalebuff themselves, who say you should not try their strategy if ANY of these situations apply to you:
* You have credit... read more
I have been getting flak for endorsing the Ayres and Nalebuff book (see above on Amazon.com), just as the authors are for writing it. People are thinking it certainly sounds reckless for young people to leverage two to one into stocks. For some young people, it certainly is. Those who do this with their personal savings and are contemplating buying a house soon could lose their down payment, and thus be unable to buy. This factor is increasingly important after the subprime crisis since no-down-payment mortgages are hard to find now. But Ayres and Nalebuff are advocating such aggressive stock market investing only for retirement portfolios. Most young people could survive an annihilation of their retirement savings; they still have plenty of time to rebuild it later and it may generally be a good bet to take just such a risk. This is the basic point that Ayres and Nalebuff make, and it is right. I worry that this book in the wrong hands (of people with a gambling impulse or who are... read more
Ok, I've just finished reading it and I'm a bit disappointed.
For me it was too much of trying to convince the reader and too little of trying to enable he reader to make his own decision.
I always felt that they were trying to dumb it down to their idea of some sort of average family investor. Only this is exactly the kind of investor that drives the behavioral finance guys nuts because he burns his money by not having his emotions under control. And therefore is much better off with the sort of fire-and-forget strategy offered by a target fund. There's a reason that the general public is not encouraged to trade options or on margin.
I really do not think this "average family investor" ought to play the role of "early adopter" of a new retirement savings strategy, regardless of how politely it is pushed. And pushed it is and if you go solely by their rhetorical tactics you always wait for the and-here-is-our-product-extra-cheap-just-for-you plug... read more
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