An overview of Climate Change - Alan Hopkins (GES Consulting)

An Overview of Climate ChangeAlan Hopkins (GES Consulting) Outline of talk Climate change and greenhouse gases: evidence of recent trends in climate change and anticipated future trends.Possible effects on agriculture and land use: hoh wo r ese is li il ei ne tn a ra e e w e?eAdaptations and possible measures to reduce climate changeRisks and uncertainties – need to plan ahead and act nowOpportunities for UK farms and rural businesses• Climate change and global warming• The “Greenhouse effect”• GrG eenhouse g ases• Climate change “scenarios”• Adaptations and mitigationsGreenhouse gases100-yr GWP Concentrations now (and 200 years ago)………………………………..……….. • COC1374 p pm m (280)2• Methane231745 ppb (700)• Nitrous oxide300314 ppb (270)• CFCs4000268 ppt (zero)Agriculture’s contribution to greenhouse gas emissions in UK• 1% of carbon dioxide (fuels and fertilisers).• > 30% of methane (enteric fermentation / manure management; mainly cattle /sheep)• > 60% nitrous oxide (soils and fertilisers).• 7% direct greenhouse gas emissions in UK• UK agriculture part of the problem but is part of the solutionAnticipated 21st century climate change impacts• Annual rainfall similar to past, but more wetter winters and summer droughts .• Continuing trend of higher average temperatures (1-5o C higher).• Regional variations: warming greatest in SE.• More variability in winds, storms and droughts.• Internationally: impacts greater in other parts of Europe and some feed exporting areas.• …specifically in the NW