Analytical Paper: Estimate Crime Rate in Kenya

This analytical paper uses data for the period 1992 '" 2009 to estimate crime rate in Kenya. The total index crime rate is disaggregated into three parts (a) crimes against persons (murder, homicide and physical injury) (b) crimes against property and theft (c) rape. The data reveals that several variables such as unemployment, inflation rate, gross domestic product and population density affect crime against person, property and rape. The data is analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) and secondary data obtained from The Kenya Police and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS). CHAPTER ONE 1.0 INTRODUCTION There are many qualitative and empirical studies that focus on correlation between unemployment and crime rates. The most common and more acceptable is that unemployment causes crime. It is evidently unclear if crime causes unemployment. The table below shows the percentage of unemployment rate in percentage for Kenya for period ranging 2000 to 2008. The total crime as recorded by the Kenya police is as shown in the table below Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Source: Kenya Police 1.1 BACKGROUND The unemployment rate is simply the number of unemployed persons divided by the total labor force (Williamson, 2002). Those that are unemployed are defined by the government as people who do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available for work. Unemployment is a prime concern for policy makers and it is often thought to be closely related with crime. Many researchers have attempted to answer the question. Agell and Nilson (2003) and Papps and Winkelmannn (1999) are examples of studies which found strong positive relationship between unemployment and crime, while Chilson and Choe (2005) reiterated that there is ambiguity in the empirical studies of crime economics regarding various income variables used to proxy the expected net gains from crime and as a result empirical findings are often mixed or contradictory to one another. Crime rates vary enormously across countries and regions, so does unemployment which varies enormously too. Cost of living and hardship due to lack of employment are normally and widely considered to be closely related to level of criminal activities. Many economists agree that they do contribute to making problems like poverty and crime more intractable and undermines the political base of democratic capitalism.