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APF Trading Customised Technical Analysis Market Commentary 14 Feb 2011

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APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 14 Feb 2011
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APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary

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APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011
Market Commentary (Customized)



GMG Global Ltd
APF Trading Pte. Ltd.
9 Battery Road
12F Straits Trading Building
Singapore 049910


Jay Ng
jay.ng@apftrading.com

Glenn Ho
glenn.ho@apftrading.com


Website:
www.apftrading.com
www.asiapacfinance.com

We examine the weekly charts as a basis and then proceed for multi time frame analysis on longer
term monthly charts.
GGL SP had a good rally following the qualified (represented by the solid green horizontal line)
breakout above TDST line at 0.150 in early April 2010. The bullish momentum was established and
a perfected sell setup was recorded (represented by a red arrow pointing down). Setup perfections
tend to suggest a 1-4 price bar correction.
The TDST at 0.220 serves as support level. Prices are consolidating sideways with a new sell setup
in play (i.e. counter is trying to establish a bull trend). Concurrently a TD Sequential Sell
Countdown is in play.

Page | 1


APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011
As seen in TD Sequential, the Tenkan Sen crosses over the Kijun Sen above the Kumo. The Kumo
served as good support levels. The Chikou was above prices. It makes the case for a good soar into
clear blue skies. As it did early in 2010.
Since then, prices had stayed above the Kijun Sen as we would have expected in a nice bull rally.
The Kumo is thickening, suggesting good support region.
Notice how the Kijun Sen became a flat horizontal line since Dec 2010. As a rubber band effect that
we always see come into action, prices gravitates toward the Kijun Sen (yellow line), breaking
below the Tenkan Sen (Magenta Line)
Notice also the angle of the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (the 2 lines that make up the
Kumo) is flat as well. There seem to be signs of a consolidation sideways. Should prices hit the
Kumo in the region, the bull trend would come under challenge.
The first line of defence stands at 0.2750
For weekly, in conclusion, GGL SP is skewed towards the upside with strong Kumo support region.
A break below the Kijun Sen at 0.2750 would undermine its bull trend skew.
Page | 2


APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011

We then look at higher time frame, monthly charts. The most obvious observation with the
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo trend following system is the distance between prices and both the Tenkan Sen
and Kijun Sen. Although the bull trend is still in play, with all elements in support of the bull, a
rubber band effect pulling prices back down towards the Tenkan Sen or even the Kijun Sen would
hardly be surprising.
The longer term chart is aligned with the view that the overall bull trend is intact with a good
chance of a correction.








Page | 3


APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011
Dongfeng Motor Group

There were very interesting developments ncluding the coincidence of the perfected buy setup right
on the base of the Kumo in Jun 2010. Is that beautiful art or precise science?
However lets delve straight into current price development. 2 weeks back there is a bearish
crossover as the Tenkan Sen crosses below the Kijun Sen. This happened above the Kumo and is
what is commonly known as a weak bearish crossover. The Chikou Span is still above prices and
current price is stuck between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. TD Setup recorded a perfected buy
setup
All these seem to suggest a lack of trend.
Page | 4


APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011

The longer term charts however show a bull picture with the price above all support levels, Tenken
Sen above Kijun Sen, Chikou Span above price.
Page | 5


APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011

Lastly we turn to daily charts to see how short term price action is developing. Bear in mind that
the monthly charts are bullish biased while weekly charts are mixed. Hardly surprising that daily
charts here are showing mixed sentiments as well. Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen is in a period of ups
and downs. Prices are breaking in and out of the Kumo.
With this sort of charts it is best to stay away. In conclusion, we expect prices to be stuck in a
trading range until some further developments aligns it towards the long term bull bias.









Page | 6


APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011
Midland Holdings

Another chart where prices are flirting around the cloud and really nothing much of a trend or the
start/end of a trend is suggested.
It is just a mixture of elements which negates each other. The Chikou is currently slightly above
price, current price is below the Kumo, with Tenkan Sen below the Kijun Sen. However see how
thin the Kumo really is. The resistance is weak.
The Kijun Sen and Senkou Span B is kind of really just flat. Volume is dwindling.
Conclusion, prices are stuck in a trading range (well, it happens 70% of the time anyway). We look
at the other time frames to see how prices are developing.
Page | 7


APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011

Similarly, prices are just in turbulence mode in and out of the clouds. Notice how the Senkou Span
B, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are all flat!
Prices are stuck in between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. The last crossover was a bearish
crossover but Chikou is currently above prices. This is aligned to the weekly charts where prices are
in no man’s land.
Page | 8


APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
14 February 2011

Shorter term prices are slightly more skewed to the downside with a medium bearish crossover in
play and the Chikou Span below prices.
However watch the dwindling volume. Also we are very conscious of how prices looked on the
longer time frames. Maintain a view of prices stucked in a range with no clear signs of trending
markets either way.




APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies,
signals, trading systems, execution services and trading platforms. The firm also conducts research
and technical analysis with a focus on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.

Page | 9


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