Career Goals in High School: Do Students Know What it Takes to Reach Them, and Does it Matter?

Catalogue no. 11F0019M — No. 320
ISSN 1205-9153
ISBN 978-1-100-14043-8
R e s e a r c h P a p e r
Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series
Career Goals in High School:
Do Students Know What it Takes to
Reach Them, and Does it Matter?
by Marc Frenette
Social Analysis Division
24-J, R.H. Coats Building, 100 Tunney's Pasture Driveway
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6
Telephone: 1-800-263-1136

---

Career Goals in High School: Do Students Know What
it Takes to Reach Them and Does it Matter?

by Marc Frenette

11F0019M No. 320
ISSN 1205-9153
ISBN 978-1-100-14043-8

Statistics Canada
Social Analysis Division
24-J, R.H. Coats Building, 100 Tunney’s Pasture Driveway, Ottawa K1A 0T6

How to obtain more information:
National inquiries line: 1-800-263-1136
E-Mail inquiries: infostats@statcan.gc.ca


October 2009

The author gratefully acknowledges helpful comments by participants of the Social Analysis Division seminar
series and attendees at a presentation delivered at the Policy Research Initiative. All remaining errors are the
responsibility of the author.

Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada
© Minister of Industry, 2009
All rights reserved. The content of this electronic publication may be reproduced, in whole or in part, and by
any means, without further permission from Statistics Canada, subject to the following conditions: that it be
done solely for the purposes of private study, research, criticism, review or newspaper summary, and/or for
non-commercial purposes; and that Statistics Canada be fully acknowledged as follows: Source (or “Adapted
from,” if appropriate): Statistics Canada, year of publication, name of product, catalogue number, volume and
issue numbers, reference period and page(s). Otherwise, no part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form, by any means—electronic, mechanical or photocopy—
or for any purposes without prior written permission of Licensing Services, Client Services Division, Statistics
Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A 0T6.

La version française de cette publication est disponible (no 11F0019M au catalogue, no 320).

Note of appreciation
Canada owes the success of its statistical system to a long-standing partnership between Statistics Canada,
the citizens of Canada, its businesses, governments and other institutions. Accurate and timely statistical
information could not be produced without their continued cooperation and goodwill.

Standards of service to the public
Statistics Canada is committed to serving its clients in a prompt, reliable and courteous manner. To this end,
the Agency has developed standards of service which its employees observe in serving its clients. To obtain
a copy of these service standards, please contact Statistics Canada toll free at 1-800-263-1136. The service
standards are also published on www.statcan.gc.ca under About us > Providing services to Canadians.

---

Analytical Studies
Research Paper Series


The Analytical Studies Research Paper Series provides for the circulation, on a pre-publication
basis, of research conducted by Branch staff, visiting Fellows and academic associates. The
Research Paper Series is intended to stimulate discussion on a variety of topics including labour,
business firm dynamics, pensions, agriculture, mortality, language, immigration, statistical
computing and simulation. Readers of the series are encouraged to contact the authors with
comments, criticisms and suggestions. A list of titles appears at the end of this document.

Papers in the series are distributed to research institutes, and specialty libraries. These papers can
be downloaded from the Internet at www.statcan.gc.ca.


Publications Review Committee
Analytical Studies, Statistics Canada
24th Floor, R.-H.-Coats Building
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6



















Symbols

The following standard symbols are used in Statistics Canada publications:
.
not available for any reference period
..
not available for a specific reference period
… not
applicable
0
true zero or a value rounded to zero
0s value rounded to 0 (zero) where there is a meaningful distinction between true zero and the value that
was rounded
p preliminary
r revised
x
suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act
E use with caution
F
too unreliable to be published

---

Table of contents

Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... 5
Executive summary....................................................................................................................... 6
1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................. 7
2 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 8
3 Results.....................................................................................................................................11
4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 17
Appendix ...................................................................................................................................... 18
References ................................................................................................................................... 19
Analytical Studies – Research Paper Series
- 4 -
Statistics Canada – Catalogue 11F0019M, No. 320

---

Abstract

Do students know the education required to achieve their career objectives? Is this information
related to their education pathways? To address these questions, the Youth in Transition Survey
(YITS), Cohort A is used to compare high school students’ perceptions of the level of education
they will require for the job they intend to hold at age 30, with the level required according to
professional job analysts at Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC). The
focus is on students intending to work in a job which requires a university degree, and examine the
correlation between the knowledge of educational requirements and subsequent university
enrolment. The results suggest that about three out of four students intending to work in a job
requiring a university degree are aware of the education they will require. Evidence suggests that
knowledge of educational requirements is related to academic performance and socio-economic
background. Differences by intended occupation are quite small. Moreover, students who know
that a university degree is required are more likely to attend university, even after accounting for
differences in academic performance, sex, and socioeconomic background. In fact, the knowledge
of educational requirements is as strongly related to university attendance as other well-
documented correlates such as sex, academic performance and parental education. Finally, higher
university attendance rates are observed when students learn earlier (rather than later), that a
university degree is required for their intended job.
















Keywords: educational requirements, student information, university attendance.
Analytical Studies – Research Paper Series
- 5 -
Statistics Canada – Catalogue 11F0019M, No. 320

---

Executive summary

Do students know the education required to achieve their career objectives? Is this information
related to their education pathways? To address these questions, the Youth in Transition Survey
(YITS), Cohort A is used to compare high school students’ perceptions of the level of education
they will require for the job they intend to hold at age 30, with the level required according to
professional job analysts at Human Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC). Given
the structure of the HRSDC rating, the focus is on students intending to work in a job, which
according to HRSD requires a university degree. The correlation between the knowledge of
educational requirements and future university enrolment is then examined.

Two questions in YITS are used to measure student perceptions of educational requirements for
their intended career. The first question is:

• “What kind of career or work would you be interested in having when you are about 30
years old? (TELL US ONE ONLY).”

The answers to this question are coded into the NOC (National Occupational Classification), which
contains information on educational requirements, based on employer interviews conducted by
professional job analysts at HRSDC. The skill level is meant to reflect the most commonly
accepted level recognized by employers for entry into an occupation. Of the four skill levels, the
only one that clearly corresponds to a well-defined education level is skill level A (a university
degree). For this reason, our study focuses on students who aspire to work in a job which,
according to HRSDC requires a university degree.

The second question used to measure student perceptions of educational requirements for their
intended career is:

• “How much education do you think is needed for this type of work? (MARK ALL THAT
APPLY.)”

The education students believe is required for their intended occupation is then compared with the
HRSDC benchmark. The results suggest that about three out of four students who intend to work
in a job requiring a university degree are aware of the education they will require. Evidence
suggests that knowledge of educational requirements is related to academic performance and
socio-economic background. Differences by intended occupation are quite small. Moreover,
students who know that a university degree is required are more likely to attend university, even
after accounting for differences in academic performance, sex, and socioeconomic background. In
fact, the knowledge of educational requirements is as strongly related to university attendance as
other well-documented correlates such as sex, academic performance, and parental education.
Finally, higher university attendance rates are observed when students learn earlier (rather than
later), that a university degree is required for their intended job.

Analytical Studies – Research Paper Series
- 6 -
Statistics Canada – Catalogue 11F0019M, No. 320

---

1 Introduction

There has been a surge in research investigating factors associated with access to post-secondary
studies in Canada over the last five or so years. The main conclusions from the studies are:

• Family background (including parental education and parental birth place) plays an
important role (e.g., Finnie, Sweetman, and Lascelles, 2005; Finnie and Mueller, 2008)
• Parental income plays a small role (e.g., Frenette, 2007), although changes to cost
parameters may matter more (e.g., Frenette, 2008a)
• Academic performance matters considerably (e.g. Frenette, 2007)
• Gender is an important factor (e.g., Christofides, Hoy and Lang. 2006; Frenette and
Zeman, 2007)
• Distance to school matters, although the reason(s) are not fully understood (e.g. Frenette,
2004, 2006, 2009).

In general, these factors are more strongly correlated with university attendance than with post-
secondary enrolment. Despite the volume of studies, none have directly investigated the
relationship between knowledge of education requirements and university attendance.
Christofides, Hoy and Lang (2006) and Frenette and Zeman (2007), look at the role of actual
returns to a university education to investigate gender differences in university attainment;
however, they do not have information on the actual knowledge held by students regarding these
returns. Bell and Bezanson (2006) conclude that career development services (broadly defined)
can reduce the high school drop-out rate, especially for disadvantaged youth. In a controlled social
experiment, the Social Research and Demonstration Corporation, in collaboration with the Canada
Millennium Scholarship Foundation, are investigating the impact on future educational outcomes by
providing high school students with education and labour market information (Currie et al., 2007).

This study fills the gap in the literature by answering three questions. First, to what extent do
student perceptions of educational requirements for their intended career match the requirements
according to professional job analysts at Human Resources and Skills Development Canada
(HRSDC). Given the structure of HRSDC’s rating, the focus is on students who intend to work in a
job requiring a university degree. Second, what factors are correlated with student perceptions of
educational requirements? Third, are student perceptions of educational requirements associated
with subsequent educational outcomes?

To date, research has not investigated student perceptions of educational requirements for their
intended career, either in Canada, or the rest of the world. There are studies (including some in
Canada), that examine student knowledge of costs and benefits associated with higher education.
Specifically, evidence from survey data conducted by Ipsos Reid suggests that Canadians tend to
overestimate the cost, and underestimate the benefits, of a university education and that the
estimation errors are larger among low-income Canadians (Usher, 2005). The current study
contributes to our understanding of information constraints by assessing the extent to which
students are aware of the educational requirement for their intended career, and its relationship
with future outcomes.

The results suggest that about three out of four students intending to work in a job requiring a
university degree are aware of the education they will require. Evidence suggests that knowledge
of educational requirements is related to academic performance and socio-economic background.
Differences by intended occupation are quite small. Moreover, students who know that a university
degree is required are more likely to attend university, even after accounting for differences in
academic performance, sex, and socioeconomic background. In fact, the knowledge of educational
requirements is as strongly related to university attendance as other well-documented correlates
Analytical Studies – Research Paper Series
- 7 -
Statistics Canada – Catalogue 11F0019M, No. 320

---

such as sex, academic performance, and parental education. Finally, higher university attendance
rates are observed when students learn earlier (rather than later), that a university degree is
required for their intended job.

The study proceeds as follows. In Section 2, the data and methods used in the study are
described, including the approach adopted to measure student perceptions of educational
requirements for their intended career. The results are presented in Section 3. Finally, conclusions
are drawn in Section 4.


2 Methodology

The data for the study are drawn from the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS), Cohort A. This survey
was developed in conjunction with the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), a
project of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development that consisted of
standardized tests in reading, mathematics and science. The target population consisted of
students enrolled in an educational institution on December 31, 1999 who were 15-years-old on
that day—that is, they were born in 1984. The assessment took place in April or May 2000 (Cycle
1). Furthermore, background questionnaires were administered to students through PISA and
YITS. Parents and schools were also administered questionnaires through YITS. Students were
followed-up every two years thereafter. Currently, data for Cycle 4 are available (when the same
students are roughly 21-years-old).

Students living in the territories or on Indian reserves, as well as students who were deemed
mentally or physically unable to perform in the PISA assessment and those with less than one year
of instruction in the language of assessment were excluded. The survey design consisted of a two-
stage approach. In the first stage, a stratified sample of schools was selected to ensure adequate
coverage in all of the 10 Canadian provinces (including minority school systems in certain
provinces). The stratification was based on the enrolment of 15-year-old students in the school in
the previous academic year. In the second stage, a simple random sample of 15-year-old students
within the school was selected. Given this complex survey design, variance measures based on
the assumption of a simple random sample are incorrect. To address this issue, variance
measures are estimated using a Taylor linear approximation.1

Two questions in YITS are used to measure student perceptions of educational requirements for
their intended career. The first is:

• “What kind of career or work would you be interested in having when you are about 30
years old? (TELL US ONE ONLY).”

This question is asked when the student is 15-years-old and again, when the student is 17-years-
old. Statistics Canada coded the descriptive text provided by the students into a SOC91 (Standard
Occupational Classification – 1991) code. The SOC91 code does not contain information on
educational requirements. However, SOC91 easily maps into the NOC (National Occupational
Classification), which does contain information on educational requirements in its second digit. This
information is based on employer interviews conducted by professional job analysts at Human
Resources and Skills Development Canada (HRSDC). The second digit ranges from 0 to 6, which
is grouped into the following four skill levels:

1.
Although much less computationally intensive than the bootstrap approach, the Taylor linear
approximation generally yields variances that are slightly higher than the true variances. In other words,
significance may be slightly understated in this study. On the other hand, if results are found to be
statistically significant, they are almost certainly statistically significant in actual fact.
Analytical Studies – Research Paper Series
- 8 -
Statistics Canada – Catalogue 11F0019M, No. 320

---

Skill level A (Second digit NOC = 1):

• University degree at the bachelor, masters or post-graduate level.

Skill level B (Second digit NOC = 2 or 3):

• Two or three years of post-secondary education at a community college, institute of
technology or CEGEP; or
• Two to four years of apprenticeship training; or
• Three to four years of secondary school and more than two years of on-the-job training,
specialized training courses or specific work experience; or
• Occupations with supervisory responsibilities and occupations with significant health and
safety responsibilities, such as firefighters, police officers and registered nursing assistants.

Skill level C (Second digit NOC = 4 or 5):

• One to four years of secondary school education
• Up to two years of on-the-job training, specialized training courses or specific work
experience.

Skill level D (Second digit NOC = 6):

• One to two years of secondary school and short-work demonstration or on-the-job training.

Note that code 0 is missing from the list above. This corresponds to management occupations,
which HRSDC does not classify into a skill level. Of the four skill levels, the only one that clearly
corresponds to a well-defined education level is skill level A (a university degree). For this reason,
this study focuses on students who aspire to work in a job which requires a university degree.

As described in the NOC Web site,2 the skill level corresponds to the type and/or amount of
training or education typically required to work in an occupation. Each skill level is intended to
reflect commonly accepted paths to employment in an occupation. Where there are several
paths to employment, the skill level most commonly identified by employers is used.

The second question used to measure student perceptions of educational requirements for their
intended career is:

• “How much education do you think is needed for this type of work? (MARK ALL THAT
APPLY.)”

This question immediately follows the previous one about career intentions. If students give more
than one answer, the highest level only is captured. This approach yields a conservative estimate
of the proportion of students who believe less education than the HRSDC benchmark is required.

The next step is to create a binary indicator of knowledge of educational requirements. Recall that
the sample only includes students who aspire to an occupation that requires a university degree,
according to HRSDC. Two alternative definitions are used:

2. See HRSDC (no date).
Analytical Studies – Research Paper Series
- 9 -
Statistics Canada – Catalogue 11F0019M, No. 320

---

1. Students know the educational requirements for their intended career if they believe a
university degree is required: that is, they agree with HRSDC.
2. Students know the educational requirements for their intended career if they believe a post-
secondary certificate of some sort is required.

The first definition is the primary one, used throughout most of the study and based on the HRSDC
benchmark. The second definition allows for the possibility of heterogeneous requirements across
jobs within the same occupational classification (i.e., some jobs may require a university degree,
while others may require a college certificate). Recall that HRSDC provides the level of education
most commonly required by employers. Some employers may require less education and students
might be aware of such employers. The second definition is used mainly as a test of robustness
when the role of knowledge of educational requirements on educational choices is investigated.
The definition is analogous to the one used by Galarneau and Morissette (2004), in their study of
job mismatch among recent immigrants.

The first part of the analysis will examine student perceptions as an outcome. Covariates include
sex, academic performance (PISA reading scores, the overall mark in school), birth order, parental
background (education, income, immigrant status, presence), and school fixed effects. These
variables are described in detail in Frenette (2008b). Descriptive sample statistics of these
variables appear in Table A1 in the appendix. The estimation approach is ordinary least squares.
Note, however, that results from logit and probit models are similar.

The relationship between years of schooling and student perceptions is also estimated. To do so,
the fact that students in Nova Scotia and Québec enter the school system based on their age as of
October 1 (Nova Scotia) or September 30 (Québec) is exploited, whereas in most other parts of the
country, the cut-off date is December 31. This means that the first cycle of the data contains some
students from grade 9 and 10 in Nova Scotia and Québec. Similar, the second cycle contains
some students from grade 11 and 12 in Nova Scotia. In Québec, students were in grade 11 (the
last year of high school in that province) or in Collège d’enseignement general et professionnel
(CEGEP), or were out of the school system. For that reason, the discontinuity in Québec in the
second cycle of the survey is not exploited.

A simple way to exploit the discontinuity in school grades is to regress the knowledge of
educational requirements variable on the actual grade. Since some students may be held back (or
may skip ahead), the actual grade with the initially assigned grade, based on the exact date of birth
falling before, or after, the cut-off date is instrumented, all the while accounting for the remaining
differences in age. The drawback of this approach is that it only allows for analysis of students in
Nova Scotia and Québec. See Frenette (2008a) for more details on this approach.

The final step in the analysis is to examine the extent to which knowledge of educational
requirements are correlated with future educational outcomes (i.e., highest level attended by age
21). The main outcome examined is university attendance, although results for college attendance,
as well as high school completion are also shown.
Analytical Studies – Research Paper Series
- 10 -
Statistics Canada – Catalogue 11F0019M, No. 320

---