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GOLD AND SILVER TECHNICAL UPDATE REPORT 25 AUG 2011
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GOLD AND SILVER TECHNICAL UPDATE REPORT 25 AUG 2011 from chiefsworld www.chiefsworld.activeboard.com
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26AUG
2011
Gold and Silver received major haircuts on Tuesday and Wednesday as Margins were
increased in China Gold Markets. The 150 dollar swing in gold just happens to arrive
JUST before options expiration for gold and silver on the 25th of the month where option
writers stood to lose BILLIONS because of the major move in gold. I don't have the data
but was told that Adrian Douglas had done the research and they stood to lose big
The long term upper gold channel line has been on our weekly chart since the breakout
in 2010 above the Red Channel line. Once price broke above the middle green line it only
took two weeks to reach the upper level. A major sell off has resulted in the midst of a
major options expiration due this Friday. Coincidence ?
Gold - The move down from 1912 (spot) has now exceeded the 8% mark and outside the previous
wave 3-4 zone with a move below 1722. This is now moving into a level of correction that may take
months instead of weeks to recover from.
Many have often heard me mention the 1-3% zone, 5-8% zone, 12-15% zone, and then the 25-38%
zone. These zones mark the magnitude of various corrections, each with their own consequences:
1-3% correction - Typically takes a few days to recover.
5-8% correction - Typically takes a few weeks to recover.
12-15% correction - Typically takes a few months to recover.
25-38% correction - typically takes 1-2 years to recover.
With the 8% level exceeded, further selling into the 12-15% area would mark (at a minimum) a
month or more of recovery before new highs are seen. However, such a move would be very odd for
this time in the seasonals, never before since the bull market started in 1999 has August been a
significant topping month.
Considering the 12-15% correction window, we can see various other support levels with-in that
zone
The gap support and 61.8% fibo retrace level are also in this 12-15% area.
I mentioned the weekly turn date window for Gold that started last week of the 14th,
along with the daily turn date window around the 18th has initiated this significant turn.
Most of those turn weeks have produced swings lasting 4 weeks to dozens of weeks.
This turn may be no exception. This is why I would have preferred a low into that turn
date instead of a high, but I do not get to decide these things.
The EW pattern up from the 1999 bull market low is also technically complete with a full
set of waves, it is entirely possible that a major top in Gold has been finished. However it
cannot be confirmed until Gold moves below 1478. The MT structure that I have favored,
pointing to gold hitting 2500-2700 by 1st quarter 2012 will be in jeopardy if Gold moves
below the 61.8% fibo retrace level at 1643. Gold will also need to make a choppy 3 wave
structure moving down into this support area 1606 to 1682, a 5 wave impulsive structure
into or exceeding this support zone would be very bearish to the long term picture
SILVER
The previous sharp correction interpretation for wave {ii} blue died with a cross yesterday of 39.80.
But this move has set up a potential running flat correction instead
Silver violated the 39.80 price yesterday killing the sharp correction count. However, a bullish
running flat count for wave {ii} is possible if it remains above the current lower trend-channel line.
Below at 38.45. If the Flat correction I see is correct, then silver should rebound sharply back above
41.40 and preferably closing the day above the 10 EMA (40.72). If Silver instead falls sharply below
38.45, then further upside potentials are in jeopardy as a channel break at this time would be very
bearish.
Silver could move up to 45-47, then may give another scary drop, but should be a higher low above
42.25
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