INTRODUCTION

I. INTRODUCTION

The Iran-Iraq War lasted for nearly nine years. It involved Iran and Iraq
in some of the largest scale fighting in the history of the Third World, and
involved virtually all of the major powers either in the political struggles
surrounding the conflict, or in actual fighting in the Gulf. While it was
primarily a land conflict, it also involved extensive naval fighting, strategic
bombing, the use of surface to surface missiles, chemical warfare, terrorism,
and the use of proxy forces.

At this writing, Iran and Iraq have agreed to a cease-fire and have been
negotiating for a peace settlement for nearly a year. There still, however, is
no way to predict whether both nations will agree to a meaningful settlement, or
how long the cease-fire and any following peace settlement will last. The Iran-
Iraq War threatens to be one of those structural conflicts which is the result
of forces that lead to one war after another, and to "cold war" in the periods
between the fighting.

As might be expected from a conflict with the scale and complexity of the
Iran-Iraq War, the conflict provides many insights and lessons regarding
strategy, tactics, command and control, operations, intelligence and technology
and technology. It has involved the use of a wide range of advanced Western and
Soviet weapons. Further, the war escalated to involve Western naval forces,
long-range surface-to-surface missiles, and the extensive use of poison gas.
More than any other war in recent times, it provides a warning of the cost of
the proliferation of new weapons and military technologies.

1.1 The Cost and Intensity of the Conflict

The true cost of the Iran-Iraq War is almost impossible to estimate. It
cannot be measured in terms of present losses, but rather in terms of the impact
of the conflict on the future political and economic development of Iran, Iraq,
and the neighboring nations that have had to invest in arms instead of their
peoples and economies. It is clear, however, that the Iran-Iraq ranks with
Vietnam and Korea as one of the longest and bloodiest conflicts since World War
II, and has been one of the grimmest wars of attrition in modern times.

The Iran-Iraq War has not had the same devastating impact on the
populations of Iraq or Iran as the Afghan conflict. As the Arab-Israeli
conflicts have shown, there is no fixed correlation between large numbers of
high technology weapons and military and civilian casualties. In fact, it is
unlikely that the Iran-Iraq War has resulted in more than half the number of
people killed in Pol Pot's attempt to consolidate power in Cambodia.
Nevertheless, the results of the Iran-Iraq War have been tragic for both
societies.

While no accurate estimates exist of the human and economic cost of the
war, it is certain that it has produced hundreds of thousands of killed, as much
as a million wounded, and over 80,000 prisoners of war. As Figure 1.1 shows,
the Iran-Iraq War has produced anywhere from 500,000 to one million dead. It has
produce from one to over two million wounded. It also has produced some 2.5
million refugees, and has cost two heavily populated developing nations at least
two hundred billion dollars.

Other estimates of the financial cost of the war are even higher. One
estimate of the cost of the war to Iran during 1980-1985 put the price as $108.2

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billion for the oil sector (of which $23.4 billion was forgone revenue), $30.3
billion non-oil GDP loss, $23.4 billion on military expenditure, $76.5 billion
in fixed capital loss formation, and $25.9 billion for destruction of
facilities. A similar estimate of the cost of the war to Iraq reached $120.8
billion for the oil sector (of which $23.4 billion was forgone revenue), $64
billion non-oil GDP loss, $33 billion on military expenditure, $43.4 billion in
fixed capital loss formation, and $8.2 billion for destruction of facilities.

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Figure 1.1
Estimates of the Cost of the Iran-Iraq War:
1980 to 1988 - Part One 1


Iran Iraq
A. Human Costs (Number of Lives)

Casualties1,050,000-550,000-
1,930,000
1,040,000

Wounded
600,000-
400,000-
1,200,000
700,000

Killed
450,000-
150,000-
730,000
340,000

Refugees
2,000,000
400,000


Prisoners of War
45,000
70,000

B. Economic Costs (Marginal Cost in $ Billions)

Arms Purchases 7
25
Oil
Revenue
10
55
Pipelines
-
3
Transportation
1
9

War Risk Insurance 1
-

Petroleum Product Imports5
-

Compensation to Families 10
4

Military
Salaries 10 10

Repairs to War Damaged Facilities 5
3
Non-Oil
GDP
20
50

Total $69
$159

Source: Modified by the author from an unclassified CIA working estimate of
April 15, 1988.
1. Does not include opportunity cost of failing to fund economic development and
normal economic operations. Costs of the Iranian revolution and Iraqi operations
against native Kurds are excluded. Estimates of direct marginal cost of the war
exclude cost of damage to economic facilities and infrastructure not repaired.
Tehran assessed damages suffered by Iran at $309 billion for the first five
years of war, of which $160 billion was damage to the oil sector. Baghdad has
not issued estimates of war costs, but damage sustained by Iraq was
significantly less than that sustained by Iran. The graphics used in Part Two
are derived by work by Dr. Abdullah Toucan.

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Figure 1.1
Estimates of the Cost of the Iran-Iraq War:
1980 to 1988 - Part Two

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1.2 The Strategic Implications of the Conflict

The Iran-Iraq War war has also been one of the most strategically important
conflicts in modern times. Unlike most Third World conflicts, the Iran-Iraq War
has threatened the economic well being of virtually every other nation in the
world. As Figure 1.2 shows, the war has directly affected nations whose oil
reserves are larger than those of some continents. It has also affected the
destiny of a region with more than 50% of the world's proven oil reserves. The
flow of Gulf oil is critical to the stability of the economies of every Western
state and every oil importing state in the Third World.

The Iran-Iraq War has presented the constant risk that Iran or Iraq could
emerge from the war as the dominant power in the Gulf, and that the balance
between Iran, Iraq, and the weaker southern Gulf states could be shifted to the
point where a single power could dominate the region. At the same time, the
success or failure of Iran's "Islamic fundamentalism" in defeating Iraq's
secular socialism has had broad implications for the future of Islam and the
entire Middle East. At various periods in the conflict, the risk of an Iranian
victory has threatened to trigger a wave of shifts from secular to religious
rule, and new patterns of hostility between Islam and both East and West.
1.3 The Internationalization of the Conflict

The Iran-Iraq War has had a far broader international character than most
Third World conflicts. Within days of the war's beginning, outside nations began
to sides. Both Iran and Iraq also struggled for financial alliances and source
of arms. Both Iran and Iraq were able to win large scale external support and to
obtain extensive supplies of imported arms. Iran's financial support was largely
indirect.

Iran relied largely on its own finances, and its external reserves
collapsed from $14.6 billion in 1979 to $6 billion in 1986/87. Nevertheless,
Syria played a critical role in supporting Iran. Syria closed a key Iraqi
pipeline to the Mediterranean early in the war, and serious weaken Iraq's
financial position. Syria also supported Iran with measures like sending its
fighter aircraft over Iraq in order to divert the Iraqi Air Force away from the
front. Syria helped Iranian and Kurdish agents blow up part of Iraq's oil
pipeline through Turkey, and divert its flow into the Ceyhan River. While the
pipeline was repaired within a week, the action cost Iraq six million dollars
for each day it was out of operation and Syria continued to funnel support to
the Kurds in Iraq until the cease-fire in 1988.

While many states sold arms to Iran, states as diverse as Israel, Libya,
the PDRY, Syria, and Algeria provided aid or concessional arms sales as well.
Libya helped spark the missile war between Iraq and Iran by sending Scud
missiles to Iran via Syria, and nations like the PRC and North Korea entered the
world arena as major arms sellers by becoming major suppliers to Iran.

Iraq, in contrast, had massive direct financial assistance from its
neighbors. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait provided $25 to $50 billion dollars in
financial grants and loans. France extended over $5.0 billion in loans to
finance military equipment. The U.S. aided with credits and Iraq by putting
increasing pressure on its allies to halt any resupply of Iran. Egypt and Jordan
provided weapons and supplies at critical moments in the war, and the USSR
played a critical role when it resumed massive arms transfers to Iraq.

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Volunteers from the military forces of other Arab nations supported Iraq in
limited numbers. The Iraqi Army used cash incentives to recruit volunteers from
other Arab countries to serve as Iraqi soldiers, and Iran has received a limited
number of Shi'ite volunteers from Lebanon and some of the Gulf states.

The war also took on a new international character during its final phase,
when the West and the USSR entered the Gulf in an effort to secure the flow of
oil through the Gulf. This eventually led to major naval clashes between the
U.S. and Iran, and a broad Western naval effort to secure the shipping routes of
the Southern Gulf states. At the same time, the United Nations played a powerful
role in the events that led to a cease-fire. What began as the struggle between
two political leaders and two conflicting ideologies, ended as an international
conflict and won that was only contained through a global effort to terminate
the war.

This complex mix of forces not only makes the Iran-Iraq War exceptionally
important, it means the war provides an exceptionally wide range of lessons. It
not only provides important lessons about land and air conflict, it shows how
ideology can radically influence the course of conflict in the Third World. It
provides many lessons about technology transfer, and about the role of power
projection by the West. Finally, it provides an important warning about the
potential impact of missile conflicts and conflicts involving weapons of mass
destruction.

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Figure 1.2: World Oil Reserves - Part One

Region and Country Estimated Proved
Reserves___________
Billions
Percent of
of Barrels
World Total

Gulf a 396.18
56.7
Bahrain .17
.02
Neutral Zone
(5.4)
.8
Iran 48.5 6.9
Iraq 44.5 (65.0) b 6.4
Kuwait c 92.7 13.3
Oman 3.5 .5
Qatar 3.35
.5
UAE 32.49
4.6
Abu Dhabi
(30.5)
-
Dubai (1.44)
-
Ras al Khaimah
(0.1)
-
Sharjah(.45)
-
Saudi Arabia d 171.7
24.6

Other Middle East
2.2 .3
Israel .75
.1
Syria 1.45
.2

Total Middle East
398.38
57.0

Africa a 55.54
7.9
Algeria 9.0
1.3
Angola 1.8
.3
Egypt 3.2
.5
Libya 21.1
3.0
Nigeria 16.65
2.4

Western Hemisphere a
117.69
16.8
U.S. 27.3 3.9
Mexico 48.6
7.0
Canada 7.075 1.0
Venezuela 25.845
3.7

Western Europe a
24.425
3.5
Britain 13.59
1.9
Norway 8.3
1.2

Asia-Pacific a 18.5299
2.7
Australia 1.5 .2
Brunei 1.4
.2
India 3.0
.42
Indonesia 8.65 1.2
Malaysia 3.5 .5

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Total Non-Communist 614.567 88.0

Communist 84.1 12.0
USSR 63.0 9.0
China 19.1
2.7
Other 2.0
.2

TOTAL WORLD
698.667
100.0

a. Breakdown by individual countries includes only major exporting or reserve
holding countries
b. The current official estimate is 44.1 billion, which has not been revised
because of the Iran-Iraq War but most U.S. officials now estimate Iraqi proved
reserves at 65 billion or more.
c. Kuwait's reserves are probably in excess of 100 billion and Saudi Arabia is
near 200 billion. The reserves for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia include half of the
Neutral Zone.
d. Neither Kuwait or Saudi Arabia provide up to date estimates of proven
reserves.
Source: Adapted from Oil and Gas Journal, December 1984 and December 1985. U.S.
Department of Energy show a slightly higher percentage of total reserves in the
Middle East. See DOE/EIA-0219(84), pp. 79-81, and Annual Energy Review, 1986,
Washington, GPO, 1986.

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Footnotes

•
An April 1986 estimate of POW's was 60,000 Iraqi and 17,000 Iranian.
Washington Times (April 26, 1986). Estimates of those killed sometimes
exceed one million, but a November estimate of 250,000 Iranian and 100,000
Iraqi dead seems more likely to be correct. Time (November 24, 1986), p.
41.
•
Japanese Institute of Middle East Economies, as cited in MidEast Markets,
February 22, 1988.
•
Japanese Institute of Middle East Economies, as cited in MidEast Markets,
February 22, 1988.
•
Cited in "Not Our War," The Economist (June 5, 1982), p, 58. Kuwait and
Saudi Arabia have also provided massive financial support to Iraq and
various Kurdish factions have also coordinated with the Iraqis or Iranians,
while others have fought them; see "A War Without End," Newsweek (August
15, 1983), p. 33.

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Document Outline

• I. INTRODUCTION
  • 1.1 The Cost and Intensity of the Conflict
    • Figure 1.1
    • Estimates of the Cost of the Iran-Iraq War:
    • 1980 to 1988 - Part One 1
    • Figure 1.1
    • Estimates of the Cost of the Iran-Iraq War:
    • 1980 to 1988 - Part Two
  • 1.2 The Strategic Implications of the Conflict
  • 1.3 The Internationalization of the Conflict
    • Figure 1.2: World Oil Reserves - Part One

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