Kenya Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Kenya Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Published: June 2012 No. of Pages: 65 Price: US $ 1175


The dynamics of a stronger currency, tight monetary policy and improved weather conditions suggest
that domestic demand conditions should remain reasonably healthy in 2012. While the lagged impact
of tighter monetary conditions could start to bite, we do not believe that this will bear a substantial
impact on consumption spending in the coming quarters.
The Kenyan consumer-facing sectors are showing tremendous long-term promise. Although Kenya is
not clearly distinguishable from its neighbours Tanzania and Uganda in terms of GDP per capita,
Kenya's consumer sector is significantly more developed than these countries. The domestic food and
drink processing industry is much stronger, and internal trade systems are more developed, with
organised grocery retail outlets much more widespread.
Following a challenging two-year period over 2008 and 2009, as post-election violence and then a
sluggish economy reined in private consumption after a period of accelerated growth, Kenya is much
more integrated into the global economy than the rest of the East African Community (EAC). Kenya
is the EAC's economic hub and its most developed consumer market.
Our strong Kenyan view is also backed up by the fact that we believe companies can more efficiently
reach the end-consumer market in comparison with Tanzania and Uganda. Internal trade systems are
stronger, with mass grocery retail contributing an estimated 5% to consolidated grocery sales
compared with a non-Kenyan East African average of about 1%.
Headline Industry Data
Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by 13.0% in 2012. To 2016, we are
forecasting a compound annual growth of 10.6%.
Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 29.2% in 2012. To 2016, we are
forecasting a compound annual growth of 31.6%.
Food and Drink Report of Kenya Q3 2012
BMI Industry View 5
Business Environment 6
BMI's Core Global Industry Views . 6
Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Ratings ... 17
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 22
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 25
Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail 25
Food . 25
Drink 37
Mass Grocery Retail . 40
Market Overview 42
An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry 42
Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments 50
Africa To Guzzle A Lot More Beer; Look Out For Nigeria ... 50
Demographic Outlook ... 54
Kenya''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (''000) .. 54
Kenya''s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 55

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Kenya''s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 56
Kenya''s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ... 57
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology . 58
Weighting .. 60
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary ... 61
Food & Drink 61
Mass Grocery Retail .. 61
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing . 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Sourcing ... 64Table: BMI''s Core Views . 16

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