Mhairi's Dilemma: A study of decision analysis at work

Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008, pp. 679–689
Mhairi’s Dilemma: A study of decision analysis at work
Barbara Mullin, Mhairi Mullin, and Roger Mullin?
with comments by Jack Dowie and Rex V. Brown
Abstract
A case study review of a formal decision analysis involving a 10 year old girl. She had just faced the death of a close
adult friend, and had become ?lled with uncertainty and emotion while facing the decision as to whether or not to attend
his funeral. The study demonstrates that formal analysis can provide the sensitivity and caring basis for such decision
making, thus counteracting some of the criticisms of decision analysis.
Keywords: decision analysis, children, emotion.
1 Introduction — Roger Mullin
Mhairi. . .
For over 20 years of teaching decision making, I have
been struck by how resistant many professionals are to
2 Mhairi’s tale
analytical approaches. A common complaint, whether
from medical practitioners, social workers, police of?-
From as early as I can remember, Father Pat was my lo-
cers, business executives or other well educated groups,
cal parish priest. He was a wonderful man; he was gen-
is that it is too dif?cult for their clients or even colleagues
tle, caring, and approachable. Over many years he had
to understand and far too dif?cult to involve them in the
created a warm and lively parish. He involved us in the
process.
daily running of the parish as much as he could, and was
Such professionals have regularly claimed that the
keen for us to participate fully during Mass. One of my
most important thing is to have a comfortable, sensitive
most poignant memories was when he invited children up
process, without any formal, structured analysis. How
onto the altar during Communion. Whoever got there ?rst
that can lead to effective decision making, I have never
held his hand and helped form a circle in preparation for
understood, but I did recognise a legitimate challenge to
singing the Our Father. I made it my goal every week to
convince them that a formal analysis was not incompat-
get there ?rst. Most of the time I was successful!
ible with being sensitive, caring and effective. It took a
Up until I was 10, Father Pat had watched me mature as
ten year old daughter and a tragic death, to give me the
a person and develop my faith. I remember so clearly the
means to address the challenge.
conversation we had during my ?rst Confession, and the
Mass he held for my ?rst Holy Communion. Before both
What follows happened 15 years ago. The story in-
I was nervous, but somehow Father Pat’s presence calmed
volves my youngest daughter, Mhairi, my wife Barbara
me down, and his jokes made me giggle. I also remember
and myself. Although in many respects the analysis
the time he asked me to announce to the congregation
within this story is simple, it nonetheless has helped me
that he was hosting a “sausage sizzle” in the parish house
demonstrate the value of decision analysis to sceptical
garden, and my embarrassment when I got tongue-tied!
professionals. I have been encouraged most recently by a
Father Pat was so special to me.
group of social workers in Scotland to record this tale.
When the news came of his sudden death, I was
The following has been written by Mhairi, Barbara and
swamped with so many emotions. I was completing a
myself, looking back on the event and doing our best to
homework task when my dad broke the news. I threw
faithfully record what transpired. The story begins with
my pencil and rubber away as I collapsed on the ?oor in
?oods of tears, inconsolable. I had never experienced a
?Barbara Mullin is a company director. Mhairi Mullin is a Speech
and Language Therapist. Roger Mullin is a company director and
death before; I was confused as to why he had been taken
teaches Decision Support Systems at the University of Stirling. (Email:
away from us, scared of what it meant both for him and
inter-ed@btconnect.com.) Jack Dowie is Emeritus Professor of Health
for me, upset at the prospect of never seeing him again.
Impact Analysis at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
The days following his death were just as hard. I at-
(Email: Jack.Dowie@lshtm.ac.uk). Rex V. Brown is Distinguished Se-
nior Fellow, School of Public Policy, George Mason University (Email:
tended the Mass held shortly after his death along with
rexvbrown@aol.com).
my mum and sisters. I sobbed as I looked at the altar; Fa-
679

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
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680
ther Pat was nowhere to be seen. It was during this Mass
4 Roger’s review
that details regarding his funeral were given; I knew I had
a big decision to make.
Having re?ected on my experience, I realise how vital it
Never having attended a funeral before, the thought of
was to have Mhairi involved throughout, discussing mat-
doing so absolutely petri?ed me. I was incredibly worried
ters and guiding me in the light of her feelings. I there-
about what it would entail. But I wanted to say goodbye
fore think it best to capture the spirit of our discussion in
and I wanted him to know I had been there for him.
the form of a dialogue between myself, and 10 year old
Mhairi. This is not a transcript of what happened, but a
My mum sat me down after Mass and explained sensi-
recreation, as best both myself and Mhairi can recall, of
tively the proceedings of a funeral. I asked question after
the type of discussion we had. I can say however, that the
question: What will happen? Who will be there? Where
?nal analysis is exactly what resulted.
will Father Pat be? Will I see him? What will happen
to him? The answers to which, unfortunately, sparked
even more worry and anxiety. How would I cope see-
Dad (Roger). This is very dif?cult Mhairi isn’t it? (She
ing his cof?n knowing he was inside? How would I cope
nods, still weeping). You are all mixed up inside and
through a Mass dedicated to his memory and during his
don’t know what is the best thing to do? (She nods and
burial? What if I had to escape? My mother held me as
hugs me) Dad has an idea that might help, would you like
we tried to work through this dilemma. She was sensi-
to hear it?
tive, empathetic, and able to get me thinking and talking,
but it didn’t help. My head was full of thoughts, images
Mhairi (still weeping).
and feelings that I was unable to make sense of or organ-
Yes, I don’t know what to do, I want to go, but I’m
ise properly. Every option we considered brought with
afraid, maybe I shouldn’t go, but wouldn’t that be bad?
it some degree of anxiety. I was grieving, anxious and
What should I do Daddy?
terribly confused; nothing seemed to be helping.
Dad returned home that night to ?nd both my mum and
Dad. Well, since everything is all mixed up inside,
I in tears. Mum explained the turmoil I was in and that
would you like me to draw a picture of the decision, so
we couldn’t work out what to do as I sat getting more and
that we can see where everything is?
more upset.
It was then that Dad asked Mum to get him some paper
Mhairi (still sobbing).
and a pencil, as he sat me on his knee. Mum can take over
OK, but I don’t think its going to help me.
the tale now. . . .
Dad. Let me try. Have a look at this box I am drawing.
Inside it I am going to write “Mhairi’s dif?cult decision”.
See? (Mhairi nods) Now, growing out of the box I am
3 Barbara’s re?ections
going to draw a line for each choice you have.
I was incredulous at this point because I knew exactly
Mhairi. What do you mean Daddy? (Mhairi stops sob-
what was coming. My husband seriously believed a de-
bing about now)
cision tree based analysis would solve Mhairi’s dilemma!
Decision Analysis was something I was struggling to un-
Dad. Well, do you agree that one thing you might do is
derstand as part of my Open University studies and here
go to Father Pat’s funeral?
he was, suggesting that a ten-year-old child, in a highly
emotional condition, could cope with it.
Mhairi. Yes, but I don’t know if I should go, that’s what
I was also grieving for Father Pat, and had to admit
the problem is, and. . .
my attempt to counsel Mhairi in more conventional ways
was patently leading nowhere. We were going round in
circles, both of us becoming more and more distressed
Dad. Wait just a moment. You have just said something
at the impasse. Therefore, despite my incredulity, and
very important. You don’t know if you should go. So if
feeling that Roger was a touch mad to try this, I sat down
you don’t go, what would you be doing instead?
and listened to his attempt to help the situation. At this
stage I would have settled for being able to help calm
Mhairi. Staying at home, but that would mean not get-
Mhairi’s emotions. Roger can now lead us through what
ting to say goodbye (signs of beginning to weep again)
transpired.
and I’d get upset again. . .

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
Decision analysis example
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Dad. OK let’s take it one step at a time. I think I need
Dad. Exactly. You are good at this. So if you go and if
two lines coming out of your box. One saying “Go to
everything went well, you would get to say goodbye and
funeral”, the other saying “Stay at home”. The problem
wouldn’t get too upset or frightened?
is, I think, it’s very dif?cult for you to know which you
should choose. Is that right?
Mhairi. Yes, but it might not, that’s what worries me.
What if I get upset too much and make a fool of myself
Mhairi. Yes, I just don’t know Daddy, what do you
in front of everyone, and have to leave, and don’t say
think I should do?
goodbye, and. . .
Dad. Wait a wee minute. I think I understand. Let me
Dad. I think you should choose what is best, and that’s
draw more of the tree, and you tell me if I am getting this
what we are going to try and work out. So do you under-
right.
stand my drawing so far? (Mhairi looks at the drawing
If you go to the funeral the problem is two things might
below.)
happen. If all goes well, you will get to say goodbye and
not be too upset. A wee cry is OK, but it would be good
Go to funeral
not to be too upset. I’ve put that in the box at the end of
this line, see? [See tree below.]
However, things might not go well, and you could be
very upset and you think you might make a fool of your-
Mhairi’s
self and not get to say goodbye properly, is that right?
difficult
So I am going to draw that in, and then we can look at
decision
it. How does this seem? I know it’s not ?nished because
we’ll have to work out what to put on your stay at home
branch, but what do you think so far?
Stay at home
Mhairi. That’s right Daddy but how do I get the good
one? And what’s the big circle for?
Mhairi. Yes, but which one do I choose?
Dad. The big circle is to put some numbers in later.
I can already see from the tree part of your problem and
Dad. Well, I don’t know yet, but we soon will if you
why it’s so dif?cult. You can choose to go to the funeral,
help me. Ok? This is called a decision tree, although it’s
but all you know at the moment is that there is a chance it
a pretty funny looking tree! Will you help work out what
will end up pretty good, but there is also a chance it will
is best for you to choose to do?
end up bad. That’s why this is dif?cult for you.
Mhairi. If I can, but what do I do now?
Mhairi. Yes, so what if I stay at home?
[Mum (Barbara) comments: By about this stage,
Dad. Well, what if you stay at home?
Mhairi had completely stopped crying, and seemed more
and more involved with her Dad. It seemed to me that
Mhairi. I’d hate it not getting to say goodbye to Father
drawing out the decision and being able to picture it was
Pat, and I might be even more upset, but what if I didn’t
having a calming effect. . . perhaps because Mhairi was
go Daddy?
beginning to understand the decision better?]
Dad. Well, I think you have just told me what might
Dad. Well let me suggest something and you can tell
be bad if you stayed at home. You might be very upset
me if you agree or not. If you were to go to the funeral,
because you didn’t get to say goodbye.
and if everything went really well, what would happen do
you think? What would be good about that for you?
Mhairi. Yes.
Mhairi. Do you mean if I get to say goodbye and I’m
Dad. So why might it be the right thing to do? You
not too upset and frightened?
must think there is a chance of something better?

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
Decision analysis example
682
Say goodbye, not too upset
Go to funeral
Upset, embarrassed, no goodbye
Mhairi’s
difficult
decision
Stay at home
Mhairi. Like what? I don’t know.
Mhairi. Yes, but what do I do?
Dad. Well, although you might regret not saying good-
Dad. Well you started doing what is needed a little ear-
bye, there might be a lot of relief that you didn’t have to
lier. We need to think about the chances of these things
go through the funeral: That you remember Father Pat in
happening. I think it’s fair to say from what you have told
the good times when he was with you, more than regret-
me, that if you choose to stay at home, the most likely
ting missing the funeral.
thing to happen is that you’ll become very upset at not
saying goodbye, and only a small chance that you won’t
feel too bad. Is that right?
Mhairi. Well, yes, I suppose so, but I don’t think that’s
going to happen. I think I’ll just be upset.
Mhairi. Yes Daddy.
I just think there’s not much
chance I’ll feel OK.
Dad. But you can’t be certain can you? (Mhairi looking
a little confused). Why do you think it might be better
Dad. Well, I am going to put some numbers on the tree
than going to the funeral?
now. These numbers are ways of telling us how likely
you think it is that each of the possibilities, like getting to
Mhairi. I suppose because I might not feel as bad as
say goodbye and not being too upset, are.
being at the funeral. I suppose I might feel better.
[Mum’s thought at the time: He’s got to be kidding!
Mhairi hasn’t done percentages yet at school. He seri-
Dad. OK. I see you think it is unlikely, but there is per-
ously thinks she’s going to be able to give him probabili-
haps a small chance that you won’t be hugely upset and
ties. This will be good!]
are relieved at not having to go to the funeral. Is that fair
to say?
Dad. Now, the bigger the number, the more likely you
think something is likely to happen. Take the possible
Mhairi. OK. . . and does that go on my tree there?
decision to stay at home.
(Mhairi has cottoned on to the design of the tree which
If you stay at home, you will feel something, do you
in its completed form thus far can be seen on the next
agree?
page).
Mhairi. Of course, that’s my worry, I..
Dad. Can you see why I now understand why your de-
cision is dif?cult? If you go to the funeral, you might be
Dad. Hold on. I can only do this a bit at a time. We
OK, but on the other hand there is a chance you won’t be.
have already agreed there are two main things that could
If you stay at home, there is a chance you will be very
happen. Show me again what they are.
upset, but just a chance you won’t be too bad. So the dif-
?culty is, whatever you choose, there is a chance that it
Mhairi. These. (Pointing at the correct descriptions —
won’t work out very well. Can you see that?
the correct outcomes – on the tree).

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
Decision analysis example
683
Say goodbye, not too upset
Go to funeral
Upset, embarrassed, no goodbye
Mhairi’s
difficult
decision
Upset, no goodbye
Stay at home
Not too upset but no goodbye
Dad. Excellent. You’re terri?c at this. We call these the
Dad. So we’ll give it a bigger number than 50. How big
possible outcomes. Outcomes simply mean things that
do you think we should make it? If we make it, say, 80
happen.
it means the other one will only be 20. If we make it 90,
Now, this involves a special kind of sum. You like
the other one becomes only 10, and the larger the number
sums don’t you? (Mhairi nods). When we put numbers
the more likely it is to happen. We call these numbers
here and here, next to each outcome (Dad pointing to the
percentages. But you don’t need to remember that just
branches connected to the outcomes), we need a way of
now. As long as you understand what we are doing.
making clear that one of them is de?nitely going to hap-
pen. We need a number that represents the certainty that
something is going to happen. We could use any number,
Mhairi. I have heard my teacher talk abut them, but I
but it is easy to use a nice round number, like 100. So, 100
don’t remember very much about it. But Daddy I don’t
is the same as saying one of these is certain to happen.
like 80 or 90, I think it’s more like 95, and 5 for the other
[This was my stumbling attempt to introduce percentage
one. Can I do that?
chances to a child who had never heard of percentages let
alone probabilities. I ran over it a couple of times, and
Dad. Yes of course, it’s what you believe that counts.
Mhairi seemed to understand).
So you are saying to me, that you think it is very likely
But this is where the sum comes in. We need to use
that the bad outcome will result, and only a small chance
two numbers that add to 100. One of the numbers is the
that you’ll not be too upset.
chance of getting the better of the two outcomes, not be-
ing too upset, and the other being really upset at not get-
ting to say goodbye. Earlier you said the worst of the out-
Mhairi. Yes Daddy, that’s what frightens me, maybe I
comes, this one (Dad pointing to the tree), was the most
should just go. . .
likely to happen. So we give that a bigger number than
the other outcome, this one. OK?
Dad. Well let’s see. Don’t you think we should com-
plete our tree and see what it suggests to us?
Mhairi. OK, but how big do we make it?
Dad. Well if each of the outcomes was as likely to hap-
Mhairi. OK Dad. Is this what you teach people?
pen as the other we would give them both 50 so that they
are the same, and so that they add to the magic number
Dad. Sometimes. It’s also what your Mum is studying
100.
at the moment, but I don’t think she is convinced. You
know our friend Jack Dowie (Mhairi nods), well Jack
Mhairi. But they are not the same, the bad outcome is
teaches this too, and it’s Jack who wrote your Mum’s
more likely to happen, I just know it!
course! So you are really doing university stuff!

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
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684
Mhairi. And it’s quite easy.
Dad. Since there are two possible outcomes if you were
to choose to go to the funeral, and since you are com-
[Mum’s eyes roll as Mum and Dad exchange meaningful
pletely uncertain, we give each outcome the same num-
smiles!].
ber as the other in terms of chances. But they still have to
add to 100 remember. So you tell me, what two numbers,
that are the same, add to 100.
Dad. Now, what about the other pair of outcomes we
need to think about. You have told me that if you go
to the funeral two things could result. First, although it
Mhairi. Fifty and ?fty.
will be a sad occasion, you might be OK and get to say
goodbye. However, you also said, you might be very up-
Dad. Correct. So I now write those numbers on to our
set, and are afraid it might lead to you having to leave
tree. See? (referring to tree at start of next page).
in front of everyone, get embarrassed, and still not get to
say goodbye as you would like. Now, do you think one
of these outcomes is more likely to occur than another?
Mhairi. So does that tell me what to do?
Mhairi. I don’t know, can you help me? What do you
Dad. No, not yet. It would be silly to make a decision
think?
just on the basis of chances. We also need to ?nd out what
value you will put on each outcome.
Dad. Well, it’s really what you think that counts. You
have never had anyone close to you die before, and there-
Mhairi. Is this more percentages that have to add up to
fore you have never been at a funeral. So we don’t have
100?
anything to help us predict what is likely to happen. And
in these circumstances, since it’s your decision, it’s your
Dad. No. The numbers we are going to use don’t need
beliefs about it that matter. Let me ask it this way. Do you
to add up to anything, but we have to decide on some kind
think one is more likely to occur than the other outcome,
of scale to measure how good or bad each outcome is.
or would you say you are completely uncertain?
Mhairi. What do you mean by a scale Daddy?
Mhairi. Oh, I’m de?nitely completely unsure. One
second I think this will happen, but then I change and
Dad. Like money. (He pulls money from his pocket).
think the other will happen. I just don’t know. Sorry
If we had a lot of pennies we could buy a lot of sweeties
Daddy.
couldn’t we?
Dad. Don’t apologise, you have been very helpful. I
Mhairi. Yes, and that would be a good outcome Daddy!
think I can help you after all. You see one of the good
things about this, is that complete uncertainty makes it
very easy to know precisely what chances, what percent-
Dad. Yes, you are good at this! Now, let’s imagine my
age numbers, we should provide.
pennies here are worth a lot more than just a penny, and
that you have to decide how much you would pay for each
of the outcomes on your tree?
Mhairi. How can me not knowing help? I don’t under-
stand.
Mhairi. Do I only need to buy one?
Dad. Well let me try to explain. You are completely
Dad. No, we need to put a value on them all: How
uncertain, OK? So another way of saying it, is that it is
much do you think they are worth? I’m not explaining
just as likely one outcome will occur as the other. You
this very well. Let me ask you another way ?rst of all.
can’t choose one being more likely than the other, can
Which of your four outcomes is the very worst as far as
you?
you are concerned?
Mhairi. No, I’m a bit confused. So what numbers do
Mhairi. Well there are two bad outcomes, and I don’t
you use for that?
much like either of them.

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
Decision analysis example
685
Say goodbye, not too upset
50
Go to funeral
50
Upset, embarrassed, no goodbye
Mhairi’s
difficult
decision
Upset, no goodbye
95
Stay at home
5
Not too upset but no goodbye
Dad. Well let’s say you could choose only between the
Mhairi. De?nitely Daddy. But if it was that easy I
two bad outcomes. Would one be any better than the
wouldn’t have this problem. But you and Mum often tell
other?
me you can’t buy happiness!
Mhairi. De?nitely. I’d hate to go to the funeral, get all
Dad. That’s right. We are only using my pennies to
upset and make a fool of myself and still not get to say
help us think through how happy. . . no,
goodbye. At least if I’m very upset at home, I will only
happy is the wrong word. . . how content you would be
be upset with you Daddy. Sorry.
with each of these outcomes. . . how desirable each is. Is
that OK?
Dad. Don’t be sorry. So this is the very worst outcome:
Mhairi. Yes Daddy, I knew you weren’t saying I could
going to the funeral but having to leave very upset be-
buy outcomes.
fore saying goodbye. So you wouldn’t want to waste any
money buying it would you?
Dad. So, to get back to the tree, I have put 100 in the
outcome which says you get to say goodbye at the funeral
Mhairi. No
and don’t get too upset. (Mhairi seems content). Now we
need to think on what value you put on the other out-
comes. Let’s start by thinking about the bad outcome of
Dad. So I can put a value of 0 on it. See I am putting
getting upset, but at home, and not saying goodbye.
it in brackets here. (See tree on next page for this and
subsequent outcome values).
Mhairi. OK, the only reason it’s a bit better than the
other one, is because I won’t be making a fool of myself.
Mhairi. Yes, I wouldn’t pay a penny for that.
Is that right?
Dad. Now, let’s think about the good outcomes. There
Dad. Seems right to me. Now what value would you
are also two of them, aren’t there?
put on it, if you have already put 100 on this, your best
outcome, and 0 on this your worst?
Mhairi. Yes, but there is only one I want. I want to be
Mhairi. Well it’s still bad, I don’t want it. . . can I put a
able to say goodbye.
small number on it, like 20?
Dad. I understand. You are saying this is the best out-
Dad. Yes that makes sense. In effect you are saying you
come by a long way. So if you had, say 100 pennies, you
would pay 20 just to make sure you don’t make a fool of
would happily spend the lot to get that outcome?
yourself in public. Are you happy with that?

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
Decision analysis example
686
Say goodbye, not too upset (100)
50
Go to funeral
50
Upset, embarrassed, no goodbye (0)
Mhairi’s
difficult
decision
Upset, no goodbye (20)
95
Stay at home
5
Not too upset but no goodbye (50)
Mhairi. I think so Daddy. And that leaves just this one
Mhairi. It’s OK Daddy. I trust you. You’re good at
(pointing to the remaining outcome). I’m not sure about
sums.
it, can you help me?
Dad. Let me try to explain it this way. I’ll point to the
Dad. Well, do you agree it must be higher than 20, be-
numbers I’m using as we go along. Your tree tells me that
cause being very upset, to which you gave 20, is worse
if you choose to go to the funeral, you have a 50 percent
than not being too upset? (Mhairi agrees). But it’s not as
chance of getting an outcome valued by you at 100.
good as the best outcome, so it must be less than 100?
Now 50% of something is the same as a half, so tell me
what half of 100 is.
Mhairi. Yes Daddy, and I thinks it’s a lot worse than
the best outcome.
Mhairi. Fifty. Can I do the other ones too?
Dad. That’s helpful. Would you say it’s nearer to the
outcome you valued at 20 than it is to the one at 100?
Dad. Of course, it’s your tree. Now here is a tricky
one. If you choose to go to the funeral you also have a
Mhairi. De?nitely.
50% chance of getting this outcome which you valued at
0. Do you know what half of nothing is?
Dad. Well that means it must be a lower number than
60, because 60 is halfway between 20 and 100.
Mhairi. You can’t do that...its just nothing.
Mhairi. That’s quite clever Daddy. I see that. And I
Dad. That’s right, half of nothing is nothing. These an-
think I’ll give it 50, because, its still going to be quite a
swers have a very special name. Utility. Its just a name
bit better than being really upset.
for a combination of chances and the value you placed on
the outcome. Now let me try to explain to you what we
Dad. Fifty it shall be then. Look, now I can work out,
should do with these two utility numbers, the answers to
on the basis of everything you have told me, what your
our sums — 50 and 0. If you go to the funeral, you might
decision tree suggests.
end up with the 50, but you might also end up with the 0.
Also is like an add sign (Mhairi is puzzled!). Put it this
Mhairi. How can you do that Daddy?
way, if you have 10 pence in your purse, and you ALSO
have 5 pence, how much do you have?
Dad. I can do a special kind of sum, but I don’t think
I’m clever enough to explain it easily.
Mhairi. Fifteen pence.

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
Decision analysis example
687
Say goodbye, not too upset (100)
50
Go to funeral
50
50
Upset, embarrassed, no goodbye (0)
Mhairi’s
difficult
decision
Upset, no goodbye (20)
95
21.5
Stay at home
5
Not too upset but no goodbye (50)
Dad. Excellent. Now let’s do the other branch. Here
a chance of getting the best of all outcomes, but also a
you have a 5% chance of something you value at 50.
chance of getting the worst of all outcomes. That’s why
That’s the same as 1/20 times 50. (A bit of arithmeti-
it was so dif?cult for you. However, it is still the best
cal explanation comes in here). . . .So that means 5% of
choice, because to stay at home would give a very large
50 is 2 ½, or as I write it, 2.5. And here you have a 95%
chance, a 95% chance, of getting a poor outcome, and
chance of an outcome valued at 20 (and again after a bit
very little, only a 5% chance of getting an OK kind of
of arithmetic). . . .that’s correct 19. That means we have
outcome, but still not a very good one. You were bril-
two utilities for this branch, 2.5 and 19. What do we do
liant.
then?
Mhairi. We add them to get 21.5.
Mhairi. But how do I make sure it’s the good outcome
I get?
Dad. And now you see what we needed the big circles
for, to put the answers in! Now it is very clear to me what
this tells me. It says the branch with the biggest total of
utilities is go to the funeral with 50. Fifty is a lot bigger
Dad. Well, we can’t be certain, but knowing what we
than 21.5, which suggests that in fact the decision is not
know now, we can plan how to implement your decision
even very close, even if it is very dif?cult. [See completed
sensibly, or at least you and your Mum can. . . . . . .
tree above.]
Mhairi. I think I see, but could you explain a bit more?
5 Barbara
Dad. Yes. What we have done is take account of ev-
erything we have talked about. We have taken account of
Knowing this, it was clear to me that we should make our
the chances and taken account of the outcomes. In fact
arrangements to make matters as easy as possible, in case
we have taken each into a count! We have then combined
Mhairi became too distressed to remain at the funeral. We
them to see which branch gives us the bigger number, or
went a little earlier so that she could become familiar with
to put it in my special language the biggest overall utility.
the church and where the cof?n would be placed prior to
the beginning of the Requiem Mass.
Mhairi. So I should go to the funeral?
I also arranged for a very close family friend to be
seated with us so that Mhairi felt supported by people
Dad. Yes, according to this analysis. But I can also see
she knew and trusted.
now why the decision was so very dif?cult for you. Be-
In the event, she managed extremely well throughout
cause your choice of going to the funeral means you have
the service and didn’t have to leave the church early.

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Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 3, No. 8, December 2008
Decision analysis example
688
6 Roger’s re?ections
7 Comment from Rex Brown
This may not have been a very complex decision, but it
As a decision analyst by profession, I welcome this de-
was an extremely dif?cult one for Mhairi. Remember too,
lightful contribution to the oft-neglected prescriptive side
she was far less familiar with theories, models, statistical
of judgment and decision making. It certainly shows how
measures and calculations than adults will be, let alone
decision analysis, or more precisely applied decision the-
professionals. Yet she not only coped, she understood
ory (ADT), can be accessible, appealing and useful to lay
her decision by participating in a decision analysis and
deciders (of any age).
found comfort in seeing things laid out logically.
It also contributes to the art of decision aiding itself.
Therefore, to me, not taking such a structured approach
The well-known engineering design principle, “build-
would have been cruel in such circumstances. Being able
test-build-test”, would work well here. The aider applies
to use decision analysis is part and parcel of being a car-
existing methods to a task, then evaluates where and how
ing and sensitive human being. And if Mhairi could par-
they might have been improved, then updates the meth-
ticipate effectively when only 10 years old, it is surely
ods accordingly, then applies them to the next task, and so
reasonable to expect most adults will be able to do it too,
on. Roger Mullin has taken a ?rst step here, and I will try
with the help of skilled professionals.
my hand at a second. Luckily, I happen to have a case of
Only three weeks after the death of Father Pat, Mhairi’s
my own with remarkable similarities to Mhairi’s2; which
much loved Granny, suddenly died. Along with her Mum
helps me make generalizable comments.
and sisters Kirstine and Rosslyn, Mhairi attended my
mother’s funeral and gave me much comfort. There was
A Matching Case
no longer a need for any decision analysis: Mhairi knew
her mind.
Ten years ago, when my daughter Karen was expecting
twins, I agreed to try to help her make a dif?cult deci-
Postscript from Jack Dowie
sion. Her female baby, in the lead, was doing well, but
her brother was in a “breech” position, which might need
a C-section delivery. Karen had to decide whether to have
Roger and I spent many stimulating hours introducing de-
both babies by C-section or to have the sister delivered
cision analysis to the hundreds of 24–84 year olds from
naturally and to have a C-section for her brother only if
all walks of life who enrolled for my OU course on Pro-
he could not be “turned”. That would be the worst out-
fessional Judgment and Decision Making. Some took
come.
to it immediately. Some rejected it immediately and
We analyzed the choice with a simple ADT model,
dropped out early on. The majority — of whom the great-
almost exactly like Mhairi’s: two options, three possi-
est number were women in the “caring professions,” such
ble outcomes (four for Mhairi) and a single measure of
as nursing and social work — wrestled long and hard with
utility. To derive the preferred option with the greatest
their intuitive resistance to what they characterised ini-
probability-weighted utility, Karen provided a probabil-
tially as “cold calculation” in relation to human beings.
ity that the brother could be turned, and a relative util-
By the end of the 9 month course they typically said, in
ity for the three delivery possibilities. The result favored
one way or another, “I wouldn’t have taken the course if
“natural ?rst”, which she did and it turned out ?ne.
you had been more honest about what was in it, but I can
Karen’s major differences from Mhairi were that she
now see that would have meant missing something that
knew percentages and averages, and that her reasoning
has changed my life/behaviour/attitudes/practice in very
was not shown with a decision tree, but with equiva-
important ways. Everyone should do it.”
lent graphics. Her input elicitation followed the same se-
One of the most frequently asked questions was always
quence, though without the emotional texture.
“But where do the emotions ?t in?” My answer — they
need to be processed, transformed into the value judg-
ments about outcomes that the analysis requires - was al-
Characterizing the cases
ways academically satisfactory to me, but I had the sense
that it never really got through. That is why I am so de-
The similarity between these two cases provided, in ef-
lighted that Roger, Barbara and Mhairi have written up
fect, an opportunistic sample of two, from a target pop-
their experience of making a decision in which emotions
ulation of potential applications of this ADT variant to
played such a signi?cant part and showed how a little
untrained deciders. The treatments were essentially the
analysis helped greatly in dealing with the dilemma posed
http://www.cafeannalisa.org.uk/STARTERS/Relationships/Mhairi’s
by the emotional con?icts.1
_Funeral_Dilemma/
2This case can be found the Prolog to Brown (2005), where it is used
1For a somewhat different analysis of the same case, see
to preview the book’s essence.

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