Retail Market Analysis Victor Valley, California

Retail Market Analysis
Victor Valley, California

2007


Victor Valley Economic Development Authority
1 8 3 7 4 P h a n t o m S t r e e t , V i c t o r v i l l e , C A 9 2 3 9 4
Tel: (800) 747-5840 / Email: INFO@VICTORVALLEYCA.COM

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R e t a i l M a r k e t

Victor Valley Retail Opportunities
A variety of retail opportunities exist in Victor Valley based on a retail leakage
analysis, results of a local community survey, and insights from community
demographics and socio-economic population data.


GENERAL MERCHANDISE
CONVENIENCE GOODS
•
Apparel
•
Hardware
•
Books
•
Sporting Goods
•
Computers / Electronics
•
Building Supplies / Home
•
Improvement

Garden Center
•
•

Home Decor

Specialty Grocery, health-oriented
•
Pharmacy
SERVICES
ENTERTAINMENT
•
Pack & Mail
•
Restaurants (sit-down, quality chains)
•
Dry Cleaning
•
Movie theaters
•
Exercise / Gym
•
YMCA
•
Banking
•
All types of entertainment and
•
recreation

Health Care
Sources: 2005 Community Survey, ESRI, Marketek, Inc. 2007

















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R e t a i l M a r k e t

Opportunities Exist Based on Current Demand
Based on household expenditures in the retail trade area, over 400,000 additional
square feet of retail space could be supported in the Victor Valley today. Retail
developments currently under construction will absorb some of this demand.
Without a selection and choice of goods, residents will make their purchases out of
the area; a fact that is supported by residents’ comments in a 2005 survey.
Potential for retail sales will continue to expand with Victor Valley’s growing market
population, the increasing number of households and rising household incomes.


SUPPORTABLE
RETAIL SECTOR
RETAIL (SF)
Full-service Restaurants
162,593
Clothing
148,707
Drinking Places
44,610
Electronics & Appliances
46,280
Specialty Foods
29,495
Office Supplies, Stationery, Gifts
20,842
Shoes
10,526
Florists
7,446
Beer, Wine, Liquor
4,925
Total
475,423
Source: ESRI BIS, Marketek, Inc. 2007






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R e t a i l M a r k e t

Growth Will Continue to Keep Retail Demand Strong
To gauge near-term growth in retail sales, calculations were made of the additional
retail sales that could be supported over the next five years, based on estimated
population and income increases for the Victor Valley.
In the year 2012, $394.4 million in additional retail, restaurant and entertainment
sales will be supportable in the Victor Valley market area based upon spending by
the resident population. These sales equate to 1.61 million square feet of
development.
The table below depicts new potential sales and supportable square feet in 2012 for
those general merchandise/service categories which represent most retail goods that
would be found in neighborhoods and shopping centers.



POTENTIAL
CATEGORY
HOUSEHOLD
POTENTIAL
EXPENDITURE
SALES
SUPPORTABLE
SPACE (SF)
Apparel
$1,887
$45,982,416
220,012
Home Furnishings
$1,313
$31,995,184
160,780
Home Improvement
$989
$24,099,952
172,143
Misc. Specialty Retail
$1,769
$43,106,992
199,569
Grocery
$5,085
$123,911,280
317,721
Health and Personal Care
$1,298
$31,629,644
86,657
Restaurants
$2,992 $72,909,056 277,221
Entertainment
$357
$8,699,376
96,660
Personal Services
$497
$12,110,896
80,205
Total Potential

$394,444,816
1,610,966
Source: ESRI, ULI, Marketek, Inc. 2007



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R e t a i l M a r k e t

Development at All-Time High
Residential and commercial building activity in Victor Valley has been consistently
strong. (Source: City Building Departments Adelanto, Apple Valley, Hesperia,
Victorville)



Figure 1

- Victor Valley Residential & Commercial Building Permits


7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Potential sales volume in
Victor Valley over the next
five years is estimated to be
$394.4 million
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R e t a i l M a r k e t

Victor Valley Retail Trade Area
Demographics presented throughout this document reflect the Victor Valley market
area as depicted on the trade area map on the following page.
For the purposes of this analysis, the Victor Valley Trade Area — the area from which
most Victor Valley businesses draw shoppers and where most Victor Valley area
shoppers carry out day-to-day business transactions — is based upon the
transportation systems, nearby retail competition, the Daily Press Newspaper
circulation, Victor Valley Community College student population, the real estate
market and other business activity.
Sources for the following data include: U.S. Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, ESRI forecasts for 2007 and 2012, survey of Victor Valley
residents.


AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC
LOCATION
2005
2007
I-15 & Bear Valley Road
75,000 95,000
I-15 & Highway 18
55,000
59,000
Highway 18 & Highway 395 (Palmdale Rd)
15,000 15,600
Highway 18 & Navajo Road (Town Center)
33,000
33,000
Apple Valley Road & Bear Valley Road
25,000 25,000
Source: MPSI Systems Inc., 2005 and 2007


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R e t a i l M a r k e t


Figure 2 - Victor Valley Retail Trade Area

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R e t a i l M a r k e t

Retail Trade Area Characteristics
The forecast for population and household growth in Victor Valley continues to
increase.
Contrary to the national trend of declining household size, Victor Valley is
experiencing growth in the number of persons per household. Today’s 3.17 persons
per household are expected to increase 3.20 persons per household by 2012. 2007
comparisons for California’s average is 2.92 persons per household and the U.S.
average is 2.59 persons per household.

Figure 3 - Average Annual Population and Household Growth, 2012 Forecast

5.00%
Population
Households

4.00%

3.00%

2.00%

1.00%

0.00%
Victor Valley
Bakersfield
Pasadena
Rancho
Reno-Sparks
Riverside

Cucamonga

Figure 4 – Victor Valley’s Estimated Population and Households.

450,000

400,000

350,000
300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000
100,000

50,000

0
2000
2007
2012 est
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R e t a i l M a r k e t

Median Age
The median age of the Victor Valley market area (33.9 years) compares well with the
state as a whole (34.2 years) and the U.S. (36.7 years).
The total Victor Valley market area population is 353,278.




Figure 5 - Age Distribution of Victor Valley Market Area, 2007




Youth (0-19 Yrs)

Prime Consumers
112,646

(20-54 yrs)

32%
159,929


46%







Seniors (55+)

75,097


22%






Figure 6 – Median Age of Victor Valley Market Area and Selected Cities, 2007
36.9
40
33.9
35.4
30.6
32.8
29.5
30
20
10
0
Victor Val ey
Bakersfield
Pasadena
Rancho
Reno-Sparks
Riverside
Cucamonga
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R e t a i l M a r k e t

Income
There are pockets of wealth in the Victor Valley trade area; 13.7 percent of
households earn in excess of $100,000 a year.



Figure 7 - Median Household Income for Victor Valley and Selected Cities, 2007


$77,825

$80,000
$70,000
$59,566
$58,775

$52,949
$60,000
$48,655
$44,072
$50,000

$40,000

$30,000
$20,000

$10,000
$0

Victor Valley
Bakersfield
Pasadena
Rancho
Reno-Sparks
Riverside
Cucamonga


Figure 8 – Distribution of Household Income in Victor Valley, 2007
over $100,000
up to $24,999
14%
25%
$50-$99,000
34%

$25-$49,999
27%


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