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International BriefU.S. Department of CommerceEconomics and Statistics AdministrationBUREAU OF THE CENSUSIB/96-2by Ward KingkadeIssued February 1997While recent Russian demographic1930’s. Further down, the depres-narrowing at the base of Russia’strends reflect the country’s currentsion around age 25 is an echo ef-current age pyramid includes theeconomic and social malaise, theyfect of World War II. The popula-granddaughters of mothers born inalso continue to reveal the shockstion ages 25-29 in 1996 is largelythe war years.experienced by Russia’s populationthe children of mothers born duringRussia’s age-sex structure leads toearlier in this century. the war and the immediate postwarsizeable fluctuations in births as theyears, who were and remain lessRussia’s fertility has been fallingvarious cohorts pass through thenumerous than their counterparts sharply since the breakup of thereproductive ages. Much of the re-a few years older or younger.USSR: Russia’s 1993 total fertilitycent drop in births in Russia is dueUpon reaching childbearing agerate (TFR) of 1.4 ranks among theto the aging of the relatively largethis small contingent of motherslowest in Europe. Despite this, 1950’s birth cohorts, which passedproduced smaller numbers of chil-access to modern contraceptiveout of the prime ages of childbear-dren than were registered in themethods remains difficult.ing by 1995. Similarly, the popula-preceding and ensuing years. Thetion increases projected for the firstIn 1992 Russia’s population passedFigure 1.a demographic milestone, experi-Population of Russia by Age and Sex: 1996 and 2020encing more deaths than births. (Single years of age)Although attention is often givenMaleAgeFemaleto the increased mortality among84801996adult men, mortality has also risen7570for women and infants.6560National averages for Russia as 5550a whole often mask variation in 45demographic patterns and condi-4035tions within Russia’s vast territory.302520Population Growth and1510Composition5 0 Russia’s population dynamics overMaleAgeFemalethe foreseeable future will be close-84ly connected to the composition of20208075Russia’s population, which pos-70sesses a highly irregular age-sex6560structure (figure 1), due to the 5550vicissitudes of history. As of 199645the effect of World War II is clearly4035visible in the dent around age 50,30reflecting the small number of war-2520time births relative to the prewar15and postwar years. The trough105 around age 60 corresponds to the0 famine and disruption occasioned1.601.20.80.4000.40.801.201.60by the forced collectivization ofMillionsagriculture and the purges of theSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.2decade of the next century will beabout average for West Europe.fertility rate of 1.03. This level ofshaped, in part, by the entry intoThe rate has continued to fall, andfertility would, if maintained in thethe reproductive ages of the Russia’s 1993 TFR of 1.4 (figureabsence of migration, imply halvingcohorts born in the 1980’s.2) ranks as one of the very lowestof the population each generation.in Europe. Because few countriesSince 1992 annual deaths in Rus-have sustained such low fertility forAnother noteworthy aspect of sia have exceeded births, currentlylong, and in view of the exception-recent Russian fertility trends isby about 1 million. The impact ofal nature of Russia’s recent history,the rising share of births out-of-this negative natural increase isRussia’s fertility is expected to risewedlock. As of 1993, roughly offset for the most part by the from its present low, although not18 percent of all births occurred toinflux of migrants from other back to replacement levels.unmarried women, and the shareformer Soviet Republics, many ofhas risen steadily over the pastwhom are Russians or Russian-As fertility has declined in Russia,few years (figure 3). This is closespeaking. Russia’s 1994 adjustedthe share of births occurring atto the West European averagecrude death rate of 16 per 1,000 young ages has been increasing:and comparable to the White pop-is more than 11/while the overall TFR declined byulation of the United States. The2 times as high asthe crude birth rate of 9.8 perabout 40 percent since the lateshare of out-of-wedlock births is1,000, while the net migration 1980’s, the fertility of women undertwice as high in East Siberia andrate for that year is estimated atage 20 fell only 2 percent.the Far East than in the Volga and5.5 per 1,000.Chernozem regions.Geographic, social and cultural di-Current projections indicate thatversity go together with Russia’sMortalityRussia’s population will declinevast size. Levels of fertility varySince the 1960’s, there has beensomewhat by the turn of the centu-accordingly. Above-replacementlittle overall improvement in Rus-ry and that growth will resume at afertility still characterizes the ruralsian mortality. Periods of mortalitylow rate during the first part of thepopulations of some of Russia’sdecline have been succeeded by21st century (table 1).southern and eastern territories.The North Caucasus Region,spells of apparent increase. Thepresent phase of deterioration hasRussia’s population, already rela-which is the region with the small-brought Russian life expectancytively old, is expected to continue toest proportion of ethnic Russians,from a postwar high of 70.1 inage, so that by 2020 half the popu-has the highest fertility level1986-87 to its 1994 level of 65.1,lation will be over 40 and moreamong the economic regions.which is the lowest registered forthan 14 percent will be over 65. Still, all of Russia’s economic the postwar period. While the re-The number of children ages 0-4regions have experienced fertilitycent increase in death rates hasin Russia has fallen in the first partreductions in the past few years—been greatest among adult men,of this decade (from 14 million insome of them quite dramatic. Themortality rates have also risen1990 to 10 million today) but is ex-region with the lowest fertility is theamong women and infants.pected to rise again over the nextNorthwest Region, an area adja-Russia’s regions differ in mortality10 years.cent to the Baltics and including St. Petersburg. In 1993 this regionas well as fertility. All regions haveregistered an exceptionally low totalexperienced rises in mortalityFertilityFigure 2.Although Russia is a low fertilityTotal Fertility Rates by Region:country in global terms, by the19901990 and 19931993standards of European and otherRussiaindustrialized countries Russia’sNorthfertility levels have figured amongNorthwestthe highest for most of the periodCentralsince the 1950’s. As recently asVolga–VyatkaChernozem1988 Russia’s total fertility rate ofVolga2.2 was adequate for the long-North Caucasusterm replacement of the popula-UralsWest Siberiation. All this has changed in theEast Siberiapast few years. Starting in 1989,Far Eastfertility began to decline in Russia,0.000.51.01.52.02.5accelerating sharply since theTotal fertility ratebreakup of the former USSR. BySource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.1992 Russia’s TFR of 1.6 was3Figure 3.1990urban areas. Since deaths fromShare of Out-of-Wedlock Births1991these causes can be prevented byby Region: 1990-931992reasonably straightforward reme-1993dial actions, the regional varia-Russiations in the corresponding infantNorthmortality rates suggest wide differ-Northwestences in living conditions and so-cial infrastructure throughout CentralRussia.Volga–VyatkaChernozemContraceptive Prevalence and AbortionVolgaRussia’s former government wasNorth Caucasuspronatalist, but not coercively so.UralsIn the 1980’s the Communist PartyWest Siberiainstituted a system of incentivesEast Siberiaincluding extended partly paid ma-Far Eastternity leaves and cash awardsgraduated by birth order. Howev-051015202530er, IUD insertions and abortionsPercent of total birthswere available upon request.Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.Estimates of contraceptive preva-lence for Russia vary widely. Re-since 1990. The Siberian, FarIt is widely recognized that mortal-cent information indicates that two-Eastern, North, and Northwest ity from infectious diseases canthirds of married women (agesRegions are distinguished bybe prevented in most cases by20-49) practice some form of familyabove average mortality.standard medical treatments andplanning, including 18 percent whopublic health precautions, such asrely on traditional methods such asantibiotics and proper sanitation.Among the adverse characteris-rhythm (table 2). Earlier dataAn inspection of infant mortalitytics of Russian reproductiveshowed lower rates of contracep-rates by cause of death in Russiahealth are high rates of maternaltive prevalence. Only 30 percent ofshows that the rates of infantand infant mortality. These rateswomen in a national-level survey inmortality due to infectious dis-are approximately at levels seen1990 reported using any form ofeases and pneumonia in the lessin various countries of Latin Amer-family planning, whether regularlydeveloped and more remote re-ica (e.g., Argentina) but are manyor only occasionally. Even at thegions (North Caucasus, East andtimes higher than the rates inhigher rates, only half of theWest Siberia, the Far East) aremost developed countries.women who want no more childrenmuch higher than in the northernare using modern methods of con-and western parts of Russia (fig-Russia’s maternal mortality, attraception, and a quarter are usingure 5). Also, the rates in almostabout 52 deaths per 100,000 liveno method at all. Unmet need forall rural areas, including ruralbirths, is 6 to 7 times higher thanfamily planning assumes significantparts of the most developed re-rates in the United States or West-proportions in Russia’s population.gions, are much higher than in ern Europe and has shared in theBased on the more recent surveys,recent general rise in RussianFigure 4.mortality. Abortions account forMaternal Mortality by Region: 1993-94Other causesAbortionabout 28 percent of maternalmortality in Russia. Roughly 90RussiaNorthpercent of maternal deaths due toNorthwestabortion involve illegal abortions.CentralVolga–VyatkaThe maternal mortality rate variesChernozemconsiderably across Russia’s VolgaNorth Caucasusregions, ranging from 37 to 78 Urals(figure 4).West SiberiaEast SiberiaFar EastRussia’s infant mortality rate (24.7020406080100per 1,000 in 1995) is about threeRate per 100,000 live birthstimes greater than in the UnitedSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.States or Western Europe.4Figure 5.region represent a variety of ethnicTotalInfant Mortality Rates for Selected Causes ofminorities, including some tradi-UrbanDeath by Region: 1993-94Ruraltionally Islamic groups.Infectious diseasesPneumoniaThe family planning behavior ofRussiaRussia’s population reflects theNorthadaptation of its members to theNorthwestscarcities and constraints of theCentralsocial and economic environment.Volga-VyatkaThese have included irregular sup-Chernozemply and unreliable quality of theVolgacontraceptives which are mostN. Caucasuswidely preferred on a worldwideUralsbasis, such as the pill. High pricesWest Siberiamay also be an obstacle. Be-East Siberiacause Russia’s population is highlyFar Easteducated and mobile, it seems600 500 400 300200 10000100200300400500600likely that as supply and quality is-Rate per 100,000 live birthssues are resolved and the generalSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.economic environment improveswe will see a shift towards modernhas the number of abortions.methods and, perhaps, a moreabout 8.5 million women who wantNonetheless, the ratios of abor-typical mix of these methods.no more children are not usingtions to births have been increas-modern contraception and 4.6 mil-ing in Russia and her neighbors inThe International Programs lion of them are not using any fami-recent years, indicating that theCenter (IPC) collects, assesses, andly planning method.fraction of pregnancies that areanalyzes population and related statis-unwanted remains substantial andtics from all countries. Based on thesedata, IPC produces the demographicContraceptive use in Russia ismay even be increasing. In 1993,estimates and projections used in thischaracterized by an unusual meth-there were 3.2 million abortions re-series of reports. This report, writtenod mix (figure 6). The IUD is theported in Russia, compared withby Ward Kingkade, was prepared withmost common method, used by4.4 million in 1985.the support of the U.S. Agency for In-roughly half of married womenternational Development. More de-Ratios of abortions to births inages 20-49 who are practicingtailed information is available from theRussia’s regions do not differcontraception. Only about 6 per-International Programs Center, Popu-greatly, the principal standout be-lation Division, U.S. Bureau of thecent use oral contraceptives,ing the lower ratio for the NorthCensus, Washington, DC 20233-8860.which in the past were discour-Caucasus. The inhabitants of thisaged as potentially harmful by theReferencesmedical profession and the publichealth administration.Barkalov, N.B. and L.E. Darskiy. Figure 6.Russia: Fertility, Contraception, In-Contraceptive Use by Russia’s low fertility has been as-duced Abortion, and Maternal Mortal-Method: 1994ity. The Futures Group. 1994.sociated with heavy reliance on(Percent of currently married women abortion. Russia and her neigh-Entwisle, B., P. Kozreva, N. Zohooriages 20-49 who use some means bors together with Romania andof contraception)and C. Cross. Family Planning andBulgaria stand out as the countriesAbortion in the Russian Federation.IUD 49.6%The Russia Longitudinal Monitoringwith the highest rates of abortionSurvey, 1992-1994. University ofin the world. The abortion rates ofNorth Carolina, Chapel Hill. 1995.Russia and the other European re-Traditional27.2%publics of the former USSR arePopov, A.A., “Family Planning in Rus-sia,” presented (postmortem) at theseveral times higher than those ofRAND Workshop on Russia’s Demo-the United States and Western Eu-Other moderngraphic Crisis in Comparative Per-rope. Russia has perennially had17.2%spective, Santa Monica, June 5-6,the highest abortion rate among1995.the former Soviet republics, re-Pill 6.0%“Problemy sem’i, okhrany materinstva icently registering twice as manydetstva” (“Problems of the family, ma-abortions as births. As the num-Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, ternal and child care”), Vestnik statisti-ber of births has dropped lately, soInternational Programs Center.ki, 6, 1991, pp.55-64.5Regional Demographic Indicators: 1993 and 199419931993 and 1994InfantmortalityMaternalMaternalrates fromRegionmortalitymortalityinfectiousfrom allfromInfantand1994AbortionscausesabortionsmortalityrespiratorypopulationAbortionsper 1,000Percent of(per(perrate (perdiseases(thou-Total(thou-womanbirths out100,000100,0001,000 live(per 1,000sands) fertility ratesands)15-49of wedlocklive births)live births)births)live births)Total . . . . . . . . . . .148,3631.403,244881852.014.025.005.33North . . . . . . . . . . . .5,9751.32117772044.88.422.743.40Northwest . . . . . . . .8,0731.03150722037.817.222.213.62Central . . . . . . . . . . .29,9111.17575781644.68.422.723.96Volga-Vyatka . . . . .8,5051.36184901338.99.922.223.88Chernozem . . . . . . .7,8941.39161891257.813.622.704.02Volga Proper . . . . .16,9321.45391951457.614.225.524.83North Caucasus . . .17,5991.80297711838.810.726.537.99Ural. . . . . . . . . . . . . .20,5061.455001001950.014.524.515.78West Siberia . . . . . .15,1921.37349902063.322.026.515.88East Siberia . . . . . .9,1901.562461062778.622.829.366.43Far East. . . . . . . . . .7,6571.45189912568.616.427.785.18Note: Totals include Kaliningrad Oblast not shown separately.Economic Regions of Russia6Table 1.Table 2.Population Indicators for Russia: 1990 to 2020Contraceptive Prevalence: 1992 and 1994(Absolute figures in thousands)Percent of currentlymarried womenPercentIndicator199019952000200520102020Methodages 20-49of usersTotal . . . . . . . . . . . . 148,081 148,291 147,938 148,907 149,978 149,6321992199419921994Urban . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109,176 108,167 110,933 114,546 118,115 122,836Rural . . . . . . . . . . . . .38,90540,12437,00534,36131,86326,797Any . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62.566.8100.0100.0Any traditional . . . . . . . . . . . . .18.118.229.027.2Male, total countryAny modern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44.448.671.072.8All ages . . . . . . . . . .69,32569,45169,10069,61070,32970,620IUD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29.733.147.549.60-5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7,1745,2255,0836,3906,3225,017Pill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.34.05.36.06-9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,7254,9103,4613,3164,3013,801Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11.411.518.217.210-16 . . . . . . . . . . . . .7,5488,1968,5376,5025,8697,40317-19 . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,0903,2723,5253,7712,7153,219Source: Entwisle, et al., 1995.15-49 . . . . . . . . . . . . .36,22838,26839,20139,06236,95235,88650-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . .11,8089,7969,79110,29212,63513,09455+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10,92912,40911,29011,76013,14316,3740-15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18,41217,22615,82515,03515,73515,145Table 3.Work age . . . . . . . . . .43,41044,07444,28446,33845,78543,634Average Age of Users of Contraceptive MethodsPension . . . . . . . . . . .7,5038,1528,9918,2378,80811,841Among Currently Married Women Ages 20-49:Female, total country1992 and 1994All ages . . . . . . . . . .78,75678,84078,83879,29779,65079,0120-5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6,9015,0034,8656,1046,0334,786Method199219946-9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,5804,7333,3183,1794,1123,62710-16 . . . . . . . . . . . . .7,3357,9618,2476,2485,6317,077Any . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33.633.517-19 . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,9743,2043,4483,6612,6173,090Any traditional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35.234.420-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . .10,4599,95010,87311,48411,8208,308Any modern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32.933.115-49 . . . . . . . . . . . . .36,02438,39139,73339,59337,30935,985IUD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33.533.250-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . .15,05212,53312,72012,99515,78115,586Pill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29.829.2Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32.534.20-15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17,80816,61715,21014,39915,04814,459Work age . . . . . . . . . .40,57640,43543,22844,24142,66039,596Source: Entwisle, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, International ProgramsPension . . . . . . . . . . .20,37121,78720,40020,65821,94124,958Center, unpublished tables.Female, marriedTotal 15+ . . . . . . . . .36,35736,61437,03737,74138,21237,17915-49 . . . . . . . . . . . . .24,29225,70926,26526,11625,58924,105Table 4.15-19 . . . . . . . . . . . . .520559609626437538Age-Specific Fertility Rates20-24 . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,8923,1893,4173,6523,6322,59025-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,6113,8214,2644,4474,7413,285(Per 1,000 women)30-34 . . . . . . . . . . . . .5,2804,7904,0074,3984,5824,84035-39 . . . . . . . . . . . . .4,8395,1664,7063,9074,2854,7551979-1986-Age40-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . .3,7874,6164,9264,4693,7164,252198019871990199520002010202045-49 . . . . . . . . . . . . .2,3633,5684,3374,6184,1963,845<20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44.149.357.450.068.463.661.4DEPENDENCY RATIOS (Both Sexes)20-24 . . . . . . . . . . . .162.1174.6161.7121.0165.6153.9148.7Total . . . . . . . . . . . .49.4049.8045.8046.1046.1048.8025-29 . . . . . . . . . . . .104.4125.796.169.495.088.385.3Youth . . . . . . . . . . . . .34.4032.0028.2026.8028.5027.3030-34 . . . . . . . . . . . .54.269.249.730.842.239.237.9Old age . . . . . . . . . . .15.0017.8017.6019.3017.5021.5035-39 . . . . . . . . . . . .19.028.020.010.914.913.813.3TOTAL FERTILITY RATE40-44 . . . . . . . . . . . .5.35.94.32.33.12.92.8Fertility rate per woman1.9471.4221.9471.8651.8101.74945-49 . . . . . . . . . . . ..4.2.2.1.2.2.2LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTHTotal fertility rateBoth sexes . . . . . . . . .68.5063.2465.3667.3769.2373.01(per woman) . . . . . . .1.9472.2641.9471.4221.9471.8101.749Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63.3956.5159.3762.0864.5968.86Female . . . . . . . . . . . .73.8670.3171.6572.9274.1077.36Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center, unpub-lished tables.INFANT MORTALITY RATEBoth sexes . . . . . . . . .23.1024.7021.6018.6016.0011.40Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25.1027.2023.2019.5016.5012.00Female . . . . . . . . . . . .20.9022.1019.9017.6015.5010.70Notes: According to Russian conventions, the working age populationconsists of men ages 16-59 and women ages 16-54. The pension age populationcomprises women ages 55+ and men ages 60+.The child dependency ratio expresses the ratio of the population ages0-14 per 100 persons ages 15-64. The old age dependency ratio is the ratio of thepopulation ages 65+ per 100 persons ages 15-64. The total dependency ratio isthe sum of these two ratios.

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