SCENARIO PLANNING Preparing for an Uncertain Future

An HDI White Paper
December 2004
SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
HDI Strategic Advisory Board
Joe Fleischer, Greg Oxton and Phil Verghis
www.ThinkHDI.com

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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
Forward
Following the January 2004 meeting of the HDI Strategic Advisory Board (SAB), a subgroup of the SAB
began a project to study factors that will affect the support industry in the decade ahead. The work was
approved by the SAB for release to the HDI Membership in December of 2004.
The HDI SAB subgroup employed scenario planning, a technique that focuses on identifying “uncertain”
drivers of change in an attempt to envision future scenarios. The SAB subgroup members, Joe Fleischer
(Chief Technical Editor, Call Center Magazine), Greg Oxton (Director, Consortium for Service
Innovation), and Phil Verghis (President, The Verghis Group) are to be commended for their efforts. Such
forecasting is fraught with uncertainty and is based upon assumptions which have not yet unfolded.
The authors of this document identified drivers that will affect, or “drive” the future of support. The
evolution of these drivers is unknown today. As the industry evolves, these “drivers” will become more
clear. The focus was to identify uncertain factors or drivers whose evolution will affect the future of the
support industry. As time passes, watching how these factors mature will provide a glimpse at possible
outcomes for the support industry. We hope you enjoy the light- hearted scenarios and find this a thought-
provoking look into the decade ahead.
Ron Muns,
CEO and Founder
HDI, Leading IT Service and Support
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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
Executive Summary
As the high-tech industry continues to change at a rapid rate, so, too, do organizations’ and consumers’
needs for technical support. Consider: How many of us in technical support could have predicted the
impact of the Internet on our jobs ten years ago?
In January of this year, HDI’s strategic advisory board (SAB) employed scenario planning in an effort to
articulate a strategy to prepare for the future of support over the next decade. Since the meeting, several
members of the SAB collaborated on a document that attempts to map out four broad environments in
which customer support can evolve. We developed stories to illustrate the effects of each of these
environments on organizations’ and consumers’ expectations and requirements for support.
We considered the future of support from the perspective of uncertain drivers, that is, conditions that one
cannot take for granted. If we had focused on certain drivers, the resulting scenarios would have been so
similar to the present that they wouldn’t be useful for describing the future. The advantage of examining
uncertain drivers is that it fosters thinking beyond the limitations of one’s own experiences, rather than
using current conditions as the basis for future scenarios.
What is the difference between a certain and an uncertain driver? A certain driver refers to conditions that
we know will unfold, even though we don’t know exactly how they will play out. An example of a certain
driver is minutarization of technology. We observe that devices like wireless phones and computers have
shrunk during the past few decades, and will continue to do so.
An example of an uncertain driver is whether environmental laws will have to address the emergence of
numerous small computing devices. A question one might pose about this uncertain driver is if environmental
laws will become stricter or foster the development of new technologies, like biodegradable phones.
Winnowing through a comprehensive list of uncertain drivers we considered, we narrowed these drivers
down to two: openness and personalization. We mapped these dimensions on the axis depicted in Figure 1.
The openness axis represents a spectrum from open to closed communication; the personalization axis
represents a spectrum from generic to personalized interactions between companies and individuals.
We derived four quadrants from the axis. Each quadrant, and the scenario associated with it, reflects
different combinations of extremes of openness and personalization, as shown in Figure 2. We examined the
broad implications for support and posed questions to consider about the four environments. Then, by
focusing on the attributes from Figure 2, we created scenarios to highlight specific conditions in which
organizations provide support.
With scenario planning, it’s important to remember that its goal is not to predict the future (even though
it would be intriguing to find out, during the meeting of HDI’s strategic advisory board in 2014, how
closely any of these scenarios in this document depict the conditions of that time).
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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
Executive Summary (continued)
Furthermore, it’s essential to keep in mind that among the four scenarios, there is no one set of circumstances
that represents the best or most desirable outcome. Instead, the primary aim of scenario planning is to expose
assumptions and contradictions inherent in current thinking about support. The scenarios themselves are
subject to change, as is the certainty of the drivers on which the scenarios are based.
By following these assumptions to their fullest extent, scenario planning helps organizations pose
questions about the types of outcomes that result from the way we envision support today. Scenarios are
useful because they provide a disciplined framework in which organizations can outline the implications
of circumstances, and prepare for them, in advance.
Figure 1
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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
Figure 2
Implications for Support
In the scenarios we developed, we outline the conditions described in Figure 2 on the previous page. But before
we could narrow our discussion to these conditions, we first had to examine the environments these scenarios
reflect. Based on all the uncertain drivers in each quadrant, we came up with implications for each quadrant:
Unit of Many (Generic and Open)
T Demand for support among end users is low.
T Users are unwilling to pay for support.
T When necessary, users support each other (community model).
T Rich standards and interoperability enable the infrastructure to support itself through automated
monitoring and repair.
T Given that the support envioronment reflects high internal complexity (for those who provide
support) and low external complexity (for those who receive support), most support is at the
infrastructure level and transparent to end users.
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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
Unit of One (Personalized and Open)
T Although demand for support is high among end users, people are unwilling to pay for support
alone unless it is bundled with other high-value offerings.
T Support is highly customized among users yet globally applicable.
T Support is highly automated, which reduces external complexity for the end user (where end users
do encounter complexity is with the degree to which they can customize the support they receive).
Exclusive Club (Personalized and Closed)
T Demand for support among end users is high, and users are willing to pay a lot for support.
T Support is highly customized based on where customer is located and the nature of the applications
being used.
T Those who provide support require skills to assist users with proprietary systems and applications
that don’t necessarily interoperate with one another.
T Support is often on-site and in person rather than anonymous over a network.
T For the sake of security, support employs minimal automation; it is a labor-intensive process that
occurs in person.
T External complexity drives demand for rich support capabilities.
Mass Market (Generic and Closed)
T Users’ support requirements reflect their locations and the devices they use; support is specific to
products and tailored to the enterprise.
T Support is available through contracts, for which there are many choices of service levels.
T Demand for support is moderate but end users are generally unwilling to pay for support;
nevertheless, if end users don’t have contracts, they are on their own.
T The account represents the primary relationship between those who provide support and those who
receive support, so it’s crucial for support organizations to maintain ownership of their accounts.
T Support reps require a broad range of skills to support proprietary systems and applications that
don’t necessarily work with one another.
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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
The Scenarios
The stories that follow occur in environments that may not be recognizable to us from our everyday
experience. The advantage of looking at uncertain drivers is that it forces us to look beyond the obvious
into possibilities for the future. That it is why they’re useful.
Just as the quadrants represent different combinations of extremes of openness and personalization, so, too,
do the stories that illustrate these extremes. To ensure that specific characteristics of these extremes,
especially those we described in Figure 2, are clearly discernable, we have chosen to highlight them in the
stories. By relating the conditions we outline in the quadrants to individuals, the effects of these conditions
are more palpable than they would be if we only presented them as bullet points within a diagram.
Questions to Consider
In focusing on support, all four scenarios reveal the impact of the environment, in terms of openness and
personalization, on how individuals receive support. Given the aim of scenario planning, to reveal how
assumptions translate to outcomes, we’ve included questions to keep in mind as you read through these stories:
1. What is the value of support to the customer in each quadrant?
(For example: What is the customer’s confidence in the relationship with a vendor, in terms of productivity,
cost savings or other desired outcomes?)
2. What kind of support metrics are most valuable in each quadrant?
(Examples of metrics can include customer satisfaction scores, knowledgebase usage or sales of virus protection
subscription services generated as a result of support requests.)
3. What support delivery systems are most valuable in each quadrant?
(Examples can include peer-to-peer support or Web-based self-help.)
4. What is the value of suport to the business?
(For example: Is support valuable in terms of achieving a better reputation for the company or for generating
more revenue?)
5. What types of support will be most valuable in each quadrant?
(For example: In which quadrants are free support, support with a product or tiered levels of support most
appealing to customers?)
6. What do you need to do to prepare yourself and your company if a particular scenario seems to be
on the verge of becoming reality in the near future?
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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
“Unit of Many”
(high degree of openness, low degree of personalization)
Edgar Fish stands outside by his stop, looking for the bus with the fish symbol on it. Like him, the Fish
bus is rarely on time. Now that he missed the 7:53, he has to get on the Lion bus, which is due to arrive
within the next two minutes. The people on the Lion bus tend to be gruff; they rarely speak to riders of
the Fish buses, preferring to read their newspapers instead.
Edgarina, Edgar’s wife and a full-time mom, stays at home. The Fish kids, Aaron and Abe, are home, too.
They’ve got colds, and even Edgarina’s best friend, Astana, hasn’t identified a remedy.
Mrs. Fish marvels at how she can communicate with Astana even though neither of them speaks the same
language. Five years ago, she reminds herself, the two of them wouldn’t have even had any chance of
coming in contact with each other.
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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
But the World Village Network, or VillageNet, changed all that. By registering with VillageNet, frequent
shoppers at leading supermarket chains receive free handheld PCs and earn points towards free travel. The
handheld PCs, which can serve as electronic boarding passes, display notifications when VillageNet
members accumulate enough points for free flights.
Thanks to VillageNet, Edgarina and her family travel often. That’s how they met Astana and other friends
across the globe. In addition to serving as boarding passes, the handheld PCs can function as passports
and credit cards. These devices are also wireless phones; unlike older models, the latest handhelds
translate what people say into hundreds of different languages.
Edgarina’s reverie is interrupted by a loud sneeze. Poor Aaron. It’s a good thing he’s old enough to stay
home alone with his younger brother, as Edgarina remembers that members of the Fish club earn
discounts on cold remedies during the winter. She puts on her coat, picks up her handheld PC and gets
ready to walk out the kitchen door. But something stops her in her tracks.
The PC has no VillageNet points left. Impossible! Collectively, Edgar’s family earned tens of millions of
VillageNet points, the top number in their club. Yet according to VillageNet Fish of Greater Milwaukee,
the family doesn’t have any points remaining.
Where did the points go? It must be those infiltrators, Edgarina thinks. She would never say the word
“infiltrator” aloud, as she was taught from a very early age that “infiltrator” connotes intolerance. But even
newscasters have started using the term to refer to people who steal handheld PCs and assume the
identities of these PCs’ owners. Many clubs have begun taking more stringent measures to secure their
information, and some have threatened not to share their members’ profiles with other clubs.
Edgarina calls her husband on the handheld. He answers softly so that he doesn’t risk disturbing the Lion
sitting next to him.
“Honey, I forgot to tell you that I transferred all your points to my phone, which I left with you, because
I was planning to buy new handhelds for all of us,” Edgar says, watching snow fall gently on several newly-
planted date palms. Like all the exotic trees he passes on his way to work, the palms are specially bred to
withstand cold. Such is the necessity of living in Milwaukee.
“Are you going to transfer any back?” snaps Edgar’s wife.
“I just did,” sighs Edgar. “Four thousand ought to cover it, no?”
“Yes,” says Edgarina, relieved. “Thank you, dear. Have a good day. Let’s hope we don’t catch the kids’ colds.”
Edgar presses the <End> button on the handheld. What he hasn’t mentioned to his wife is that the handheld
fell out of his satchel yesterday evening after work as he was running for a Fish bus. Edgar can still place calls
from the handheld, but the handheld’s display disappeared and has never returned. Edgar had been planning
to upgrade his and his wife’s handhelds anyway; yesterday’s accident gives Edgar his opportunity.
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SCENARIO PLANNING
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
www.ThinkHDI.com
The bus pulls into the terminal. Edgar goes to the ground level of the terminal, where his favorite Fish
repair shop is located.
“Hey, Doug,” says Edgar to a short, balding and very fit man behind a Lucite counter in a store the size of
a broom closet. Doug is Edgar’s first cousin, and he, too, is a Fish.
“How goes it?” asks Doug in a booming bass voice. Then, he asks, much more softly, “You and Edgarina
ready to make that upgrade?”
“We are,” says Edgar, removing the handheld from his satchel. “The display on this phone stopped working.”
Then, he adds, in a whisper: “I dropped the phone while running for my bus last night. Does that void
the warranty?”
“Not among us Fishes it doesn’t,” whispers Doug. “Each store is independent, so we’re allowed to use our
own judgment about warranties and stuff. Don’t give it a second thought.”
“Great,” says Edgar, no longer whispering. “How much are the newest models?”
“I wouldn’t even bother asking about that,” whispers Doug. “I’d get this one fixed.”
“OK,” Edgar says. “How much does it cost to get my broken handheld fixed and how soon will it be ready?”
“For nonFishes, the cost is 200 VillageNet points, including parts and labor,” says Doug, still whispering.
“But since you’re family and my best customer, I’ll take care of it for free, if you agree to upgrade to a new
service rather than the new model of handheld.”
“Thank you, Doug,” says Edgar, warily. Then he asks: “What does the new service consist of?”
Doug answers in a whisper, so that Edgar can barely hear him. “The service entitles you to free support
for the lifetime of your current devices, beyond the terms of the warranty,” he says. “It will cost you less
than it would for a onetime repair to a handheld that’s out of warranty.”
“How much?” asks Edgar.
“Before I tell you, I want you to know that I’m only offering this to you,” says Doug, still whispering,
although slightly more audibly. “Yes, I get a commission if you sign up for the service. But I wouldn’t offer
anyone, least of all a Fish, anything I wouldn’t use myself.”
“Hmm,” says Edgar. He is not fully convinced of Doug’s motives, and his own research shows that the lifetime
support, based on the pricing he’s seen on VillageNet’s information portal, to cost three times as much as the
onetime upgrades to new handhelds. But he has to reserve judgment until Doug answers his next question.
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