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Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climate change
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- Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climate change Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) Aline te Linde (IVM - VU / Deltares) Jeroen Aerts (IVM - VU) Oxford – October 2, 2008
- Outline
- Introduction
- Method
- - GRADE
- Results
- - Climate change scenarios
- - Extreme value analysis
- Conclusions
- Introduction ACER
- Recent floods / droughts ? major damage
- Climate change
- Need for cross-boundary cooperation
- GOAL:
- test robustness of new cross-boundary adaptation strategies
- Rhine basin
- Length: 1,320 km
- Area 160,800 km 2
- Mean Q 2,206 m 3 /s
- Maximum observed 12,600 m 3 /s
- Safety levels vary from 1/200 to 1/1250
- 58 million inhabitants (10 million flood plain)
- High economic relevance
- Flood management strategies since beginning 19 th century
- Introduction
- IKSR – Flood Action Plan
- D – NL Working Group on Floods
- EU Floods Directive
- Do not take into account climate change
- Research available*
- Assumption – infinite dike height
- Large uncertainty probability extreme events
- Do not take into account effect of measures
- Method
- Method - Hydrological modelling
- Rainfall - runoff (HBV / VIC)
- Implementing climate change scenario
- Landuse change
- 1D Hydrodynamic model (SOBEK)
- Measures
- Dike heightening
- Dike relocation
- Landuse change flood plain (friction)
- Bypass
- Detention area
- Flooding (calibrated on 2D model)
- GRADE – Generator of rainfall and discharge extremes
- Developed by Deltares, Waterdienst, KNMI
- Implement
- Climate change scenarios
- Measures
- Climate change impact Lobith – mean monthly change Transient run
- Detention area – flooding
- Extreme value analysis yearly max. Q – Gumbel fit
- 100 yrs observed
- 1000 yrs resampled
- GEV distribution fit
- Results
- Conclusion
- Method GRADE + extreme value analysis
- possibility to analyse ensemble of events / bandwidth
- narrows confidence interval extreme value distribution fit
- Impact of
- Detention area ? effect strongly depends on event size
- Climate change ? peak events (flooding) expected to occur more frequently
- Flooding ? Q > 12,000 m 3 /s - upstream flooding – lowers max. Q up to 20%
- (Dike heightening will increase extreme peak discharge downstream)
- Simulate combined effect
- This reseach is part of a ‘Climate Changes Spatial Planning’ project Thank you Adaptive Capacity to Extreme events in the Rhine basin (ACER) More information on: www.klimaatvoorruimte.nl (english version) and www.adaptation.nlacer [email_address]
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