South Side Report - South Tampa Real Estate

The Southside Report

August, 2009
_____________________________________________________________________
Comments and Random Thoughts



Dear Friends:

This may be the news we’ve all been hoping for. But again, … maybe it’s not. I am very encouraged by the
numbers in the Rolling Six Month Analysis. This report gives us the most immediate and accurate feedback by
comparing six month averages rather than only a single month. For the first time in a long time, we see an
increase in the number of transactions AND an increase in the average sales price. That’s what we said would
have to happen before we could say the market has reached the bottom and is on it’s way back. Oh happy day!

Or is it? Looking at the “Year To Date Average Sales Price” (something new we added this month)
there is no indication that prices are making a comeback. In fact, the average sales price has actually declined
for the last two months from its high in June. But the statistics show that the decline is slowing, the market is
stabilizing, and is beginning to show some modest – make that, very modest – moves in the right direction.

Contradicting the good news are the Davis Islands and Hyde Park neighborhoods in Zip Code 33606. Activity
here continues to decline while the rest of the market picks up. But the prices in these areas remain high, and
the high end of the market is barely breathing. With an average sales price above $500,000, the reasoning for
the lack of sales comes clear.

In response to your suggestions, we have added another new feature called “Sales By Price Range.” Take a look
and you’ll see how sharply the activity drops on sales over $400,000; buyers are shopping hard, looking for
deals. Sellers in the “have to” category are lowering their prices; others on the high end are holding on. The
Absorption Rate shown in the Sales by Price graphic is a great indicator of the health of the market. While our
rate of 17 months is anemic, Asheville, NC has an absorption rate of 22. Surprised?

All in all, it looks like we’ve hit the bottom and maybe starting to climb our way out. The September and
October numbers will be critical to the recovery: a third consecutive month of increased activity and average
sales price will tell us we’re on our way. Bad news on either could be an indicator that things may get tougher
before they get better. Stay tuned.


Bruce Tigert

---

Average Sales Price August 2009












Selling Price


$ / Sq. Ft.





Days

One Year
Two Year


One Year
Two Year

# Sales
List Price
Selling Price
%
On Mkt.

% Change
% Change

$ / Sq. Ft.
% Change
% Change
33606












August 2007
13
$774,130.00 $714,684.00
92%
84




$298.70


August 2008
25
$475,340.00 $447,648.00
94%
128

-37.36%


$216.84
-27.41%

August 2009
9
$547,366.00 $506,166.00
92%
155

13.07%
-29.18%

$209.84
-3.23%
-29.75%











33609












August 2007
15
$716,793.00
666,873.00
93%
133




$220.59


August 2008
23
$455,630.00
410,301.00
90%
142

-38.47%


$179.04
-18.84%

August 2009
27
$210,755.00
191,329.00
91%
165

-53.37%
-71.31%

$120.23
-32.85%
-45.50%











33611











August 2007
45
$383,231.00
364,156.00
95%
124




$180.72


August 2008
27
$302,070.00
311,325.00
103%
171

-14.51%


$150.70
-16.61%

August 2009
35
$230,160.00
215,051.00
93%
119

-30.92%
-40.95%

$113.68
-24.57%
-37.10%











33629












August 2007
34
$433,171.00
409,933.00
95%
97




$220.11


August 2008
37
$490,500.00
473,412.00
97%
368

15.49%


$208.34
-5.35%

August 2009
31
$420,287.00
391,719.00
93%
108

-17.26%
-4.44%

$177.92
-14.60%
-19.17%












Total












August 2007
107
$576,831.25 $538,911.50
93%
109.5




$230.03


August 2008
112
$430,885.00 $410,671.50
95%
202.25

-23.80%


$188.73
-17.95%

August 2009
102
$352,142.00 $326,066.25
93%
136.75

-20.60%
-39.50%

$155.42
-17.65%
-32.44%

---

Six Month Year To Year Comparison March - August 2009
















Prev. Year
Two Year



Prev. Year
Two Year
33606
# Sales
Volume
$ Change
% Change
% Change

Average Price
$ Change
% Change % Change
Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2007
152
$84,443,066




$555,546.49



Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2008
109
$53,552,630
-$30,890,436.00
-36.58%


$491,308.53
-$64,237.95
-11.56%

Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2009
73
$31,753,301
-$21,799,329.00
-40.71%
-62.40%

$434,976.73
-$56,331.81
-11.47%
-21.70%











33609










Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2007
140
$59,199,079




$422,850.56



Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2008
104
$39,149,855
-$20,049,224.00
-33.87%


$376,440.91
-$46,409.65
-10.98%

Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2009
141
$42,728,258
$3,578,403.00
9.14%
-27.82%

$303,037.29
-$73,403.62
-19.50%
-28.33%











33611










Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2007
259
$97,399,092




$376,058.27



Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2008
186
$58,557,999
-$38,841,093.00
-39.88%


$314,827.95
-$61,230.32
-16.28%

Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2009
202
$46,466,475
-$12,091,524.00
-20.65%
-52.29%

$230,032.05
-$84,795.90
-26.93%
-38.83%











33629










Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2007
227
$124,388,310




$547,966.12



Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2008
192
$90,986,898
-$33,401,412.00
-26.85%


$473,890.09
-$74,076.03
-13.52%

Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2009
194
$78,286,210
-$12,700,688.00
-13.96%
-37.06%

$403,537.16
-$70,352.93
-14.85%
-26.36%











Total










Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2007
778
$365,429,547.00




$469,703.79



Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2008
591
$242,247,382.00 -$123,182,165.00
-33.71%


$409,894.05
-$59,809.74
-12.73%

Mar 1 - Aug 31, 2009
610
$199,234,244.00
-$43,013,138.00
-17.76%
-45.48%

$326,613.51
-$83,280.53
-20.32%
-30.46%

---

Rolling Six Month Comparison


























#

Sales Difference
Volume
Difference
% Diff.
Average Price
Difference
% Diff.
Cum. Diff.
Oct.1 '08 - Mar. 31 '09
441

165,818,507.00


376,005.68



Nov. 1 '08 - Apr. 30 '09
435
-6
151,643,060.00
-14,175,447.00
-8.55%
348,604.74
-$27,400.95
-7.29%
-7.29%
Dec.1 '08 - May 31 '09
451
16
156,173,076.00
4,530,016.00
2.99%
346,281.76
-$2,322.97
-0.67%
-7.91%
Jan. 1 '09 - June 30 '09
507
56
166,230,886.00
10,057,810.00
6.44%
327,871.57
-$18,410.19
-5.32%
-12.80%
Feb. 1 '09 - July 31 '09
564
57
188,103,030.00
21,872,144.00
13.16%
295,759.00
-$32,112.57
-9.79%
-15.16%
Mar. 1 '09 - Aug. 31 '09
610
46
$199,234,244.00
11,131,214.00
5.92%
$326,613.51
$30,854.51
10.43%
-5.68%



Year To Date Average Sales Price

























Jan
Feb
Mar
April
May
June
July
Aug
Average
33606
$603,500
$476,361
$399,356
$275,544
$366,150
$573,456
$449,023
$547,366
$461,345
33609
$248,686
$341,977
$500,046
$251,190
$306,006
$323,045
$333,668
$210,755
$314,422
33611
$176,763
$163,152
$199,319
$231,070
$302,769
$211,502
$222,421
$230,160
$217,145
33629
$349,529
$412,314
$456,515
$309,626
$347,107
$401,071
$468,171
$420,287
$395,578
Average
$344,620
$348,451
$388,809
$266,858
$330,508
$377,269
$368,321
$352,142
$347,122

---

Sales by Price Range August 2009



































Price Range
# of Sales
YDT Total
Listings
Absorption

Jan
Feb
Mar
April May June July Aug Sept
Oct
Nov Dec
Sales
Aug. '09
Rate*
$ 0 - 200,000
36
35
31
42
35
64
44
53




340
751
18
$ 200 - 400,000
24
30
70
37
30
40
49
33




313
449
11
$ 400 - 600,000
9
2
9
12
9
18
22
12




93
226
19
$ 600 - 800,000
6
1
4
6
10
6
4
5




42
142
27
$ 800 - 1,000,000
2
2
3
0
3
4
2
2




18
78
35
$ 1M - 2,000,000
4
2
5
1
2
2
7
3




26
106
33
$ 2,000,000 +
0
1
2
0
1
2
2
0




8
48
48
















Total
81
73
124
98
90
136
130 108




840
1800
17
































* Absorption Rate = the number of months to absorb the current number of listings based on the average number of sales per month.

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