V. IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE



The great majority of the population in the
could significantly reduce the size of
countries most affected by HIV/AIDS live in rural
the harvest, affecting food production.
areas. In many African countries, farming and

other rural occupations provide a livelihood for
• Loss of knowledge about traditional
more than 70 per cent of the population. Hence, it
farming methods and loss of assets will
is to be expected that the HIV/AIDS epidemic will
occur as members of rural households
cause serious damage to the agriculture sector in
are struck by the disease and are not
those countries, especially in countries that rely
able to pass on their know-how to sub-
heavily on manpower for production. The present
sequent generations.
chapter explores the issues related to the impact of

HIV/AIDS on agriculture. First, a conceptual
• Loss or reduction of remittances is
framework for analysis of the impact of
likely to occur in areas where agricul-
HIV/AIDS on agriculture is presented, based on
tural workers send money home while
previous work by the Food and Agriculture Or-
working abroad. When the workers be-
ganization of the United Nations (FAO), followed
come sick, they can no longer earn
by a presentation of the evidence available on the
money to send home.
impact of HIV/AIDS on agriculture.


Consequently, the important impacts of the
A. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE IMPACT
HIV/AIDS epidemic on agriculture are food inse-
OF HIV/AIDS ON AGRICULTURE
curity caused by the reduction of production, and

loss of income from household members em-
HIV/AIDS can affect agriculture in many
ployed in the sector.
ways (figure 10):


The HIV/AIDS epidemic may also affect the
• Absenteeism caused by HIV-related ill-
traditional coping mechanisms that are often
nesses and the loss of labour from
found in rural areas. Traditionally, local residents
AIDS-related deaths may lead to the re-
have joined together to offer assistance to those in
duction of the area of land under culti-
need during periods of shock or crisis. Indeed,
vation and to declining yields resulting
community-based initiatives have become one of
in reduced food production and food in-
the outstanding features of the epidemic and a key
security.
coping mechanism for mitigating the impact of

HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS, 2002). However, as the
• The loss of labour may also lead to de-
number of HIV/AIDS cases increases, the need
clines in crop variety and to changes in
for assistance may overwhelm the support system,
cropping systems, particularly a change
and traditional coping mechanisms may begin to
from more labour-intensive systems to
break down.
less intensive systems. Livestock pro-

duction may become less intensive, and
B. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF THE IMPACT OF
weeding and pruning may be curtailed.
HIV/AIDS ON AGRICULTURE
A shift away from labour-intensive

crops may result in a less varied and
Many of the studies assessing the impact of
less nutritious diet.
HIV/AIDS on agriculture have been conducted

under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture
• The reduction in labour supply through
Organization. Of the AIDS impact studies con-
the loss of workers to HIV/AIDS at cru-
ducted so far, the majority have dealt with the ru-
cial periods of planting and harvesting
ral world, that is, agriculture and livestock.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

The Impact of AIDS
61

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Figure10. Conceptual framework for the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on agriculture

HIV/AIDS in the
agricultural sector
Family members’
Loss of savings,
Absenteeism and
Loss of farming
time diverted to
household and farm
deaths of workers
knowledge
caregiving
assets
Less land under
Less-labour-intensive
Less livestock
Less crop variety
cultivation
crops
production
Decline in income
Decline in farm
from wage labour,
Food insecurity
income
remittances


Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.



1. Impact on food security and changes in
time the Zimbabwe data did not indicate a dra-
cropping patterns
matic switch from cash to subsistence crops.


One of the main impacts of HIV/AIDS on ag-
TABLE 14. REDUCTION IN OUTPUT IN AIDS-AFFECTED
riculture is its impact on food security. For exam-
HOUSEHOLDS, ZIMBABWE
ple, a survey carried out in 1997 in Zimbabwe, a

country with an adult prevalence rate of more than
Production
loss
Crop
(Percentage)
25 per cent, estimated production loss in AIDS-


affected households. The survey, conducted by the
Maize.........................
61
Zimbabwe Farmers’ Union, found that agricul-
Cotton........................
47
tural output declined by nearly 50 per cent in the
households affected by AIDS (Kwaramba, 1997).
Vegetables .................
49
Maize production by smallholder farmers, and
Ground nuts ...............
37
commercial farms declined by 61 per cent as a
Cattle .........................
29
result of illness and deaths from AIDS (table 14).


Those production losses could result from a num-
Source: Kwaramba, The Socio-economic Impact
ber of factors, including shifting production pat-
of HIV/AIDS on Communal Agricultural Production
Systems in Zimbabwe (Harare, Zimbabwe Farmer’s
terns. However, according to Kwaramba, at that
Union and Friederich Ebert Stiffung, 1997).

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
62
The Impact of AIDS

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By contrast, in Côte d’Ivoire, a 1997 study
tion. The outcome might be less timely farming
found that switching to food crops rather than
practices, resulting in reduced yields and, over
cash crops led to a drop in production by two
time, a general decline in household welfare.
thirds of previous levels (Black-Michaud, 1997).

In addition, reduced remittances resulting from
A study conducted in Ethiopia showed the re-
illnesses or deaths of migrant workers were found
duction in agricultural labour time as a result of
in Burkina Faso, whose nationals migrate to Côte
HIV/AIDS: the number of hours per week in agri-
d’Ivoire as seasonal agricultural workers.
culture fell from 33.6 hours in non-afflicted

households to between 11 and 16 hours in af-
In a study conducted in Burkina Faso in 1997,
flicted households (Black-Michaud, 1997).
it was found that in two villages, Sanguié and

Boulkiemdé, shifting work patterns and an overall
AIDS is expected to have a greater impact in
reduction in food production had occurred as a
the future. According to estimates by FAO, be-
result of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The same study
tween 1985 and 2000, in the 27 most affected
found that net revenues from agricultural produc-
countries in Africa, 7 million agricultural workers
tion had decreased by 25 to 50 per cent (FAO,
died from AIDS, and 16 million more deaths were
1997). The Government of Swaziland also re-
likely to occur in the following two decades. In 12
ported a 54 per cent drop in agricultural produc-
countries, including the 10 most affected African
tion in households where at least one adult mem-
countries, labour force decreases ranging from 10
ber died from AIDS (Wall Street Journal, 9 July
to 26 percent are anticipated (table 15). Namibia
2003).
is expected to suffer the most in terms of loss of

labour force by 2020 (26 per cent of its labour
A study in the United Republic of Tanzania
force), followed by Botswana.
showed that a woman whose husband was sick

was likely to spend 45 per cent less time on agri-
Another feature of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is
culture than if the husband were healthy. In Kag-
that its impact may be observable only when the
era, a survey showed that, on average, adults in
epidemic reaches the mortality stage of AIDS,
households that experienced a death spent five
with people dying in large numbers. It is therefore
hours less on farming during the previous week
important to design measures that allow the pre-
than those without a death (Mutangadura, 2000).
diction of the impact of the epidemic in the future

as well as in the present. A study conducted by the
In Kenya, a study found that the commercial
United States Department of Agriculture ad-
agricultural sector was facing a severe social and
dressed that concern by projecting the impact of
economic crisis caused by HIV/AIDS (Rugalema,
AIDS on production (Shapouri and Rosen, 2001).
1999). The loss of skilled and experienced labour
The study found that in the most affected coun-
to the epidemic is a serious concern. However, it
tries in Africa, slow growth in agricultural produc-
was difficult to quantify the impact of the epi-
tivity and the overall economy resulted in growing
demic in terms of increasing costs.
food insecurity, with a substantial gap between

production and needs projected for 2010 in many
In Namibia, worker-deficient households cul-
countries (table 16). Food insecurity is measured
tivate less land and have fewer cattle and less non-
by the nutrition gap, which represents the differ-
farm-related cash income (Mutangadura and Mu-
ence between projected food supplies and the
kurazita, 1999).
amount of food needed to meet per capita nutri-

tion standards at the national level (United States
2. Absenteeism and loss of labour
Department of Agriculture, 2001). In Kenya, for

example, grain production in 2010 is projected to
In countries or areas heavily affected by the
be 12.1 per cent less than the amount needed (ta-
HIV/AIDS epidemic, the time required to care for
ble 16). Increasing reliance on imported grain and
the sick and seek medical assistance often had an
food aid will be necessary to meet nutrition re-
impact on time available for agricultural produc-
quirements (Shapouri and Rosen, 2001).
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

The Impact of AIDS
63

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TABLE 15. ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED LOSS OF LABOUR FORCE IN 2000 AND 2020
(Percentage)

Country 2000
2020



Namibia..............................................
3.0 26.0
Botswana............................................
6.6 23.2
Zimbabwe...........................................
9.6 22.7
Mozambique.......................................
2.3 20.0
South Africa .......................................
3.9 19.9
Kenya .................................................
3.9 16.8
Malawi ...............................................
5.8 13.8
Uganda ...............................................
12.8 13.7
United Republic of Tanzania..............
5.8 12.7
Central African Republic ...................
6.3 12.6
Côte d'Ivoire.......................................
5.6 11.4
Cameroon ...........................................
2.9 10.7




Source: FAO, “The impact of AIDS on food security”, paper presented at the twenty-
seventh session of the Committee on World Food Security, Rome, 28 May – 1 June 2001.


TABLE 16. GRAIN MARKET PERFORMANCE FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES


Annual production growth Projected nutrition gapa

1980-1999 1989-1999
2010

Percentage

Eastern Africa



Kenya..............................................
0.44 -1.04
12.1
Uganda............................................
2.18 1.29
0.0
United Republic of Tanzania ..........
2.03
0.00
33.6
Southern Africa



Malawi............................................
1.83 4.14
18.1
Zambia............................................
-1.22 -3.63
69.9
Zimbabwe .......................................
-1.06 -0.10
2.4





Source:
Based on S. Shapouri and S. Rosen, “Toll on agriculture from HIV/AIDS in sub-
Saharan Africa”, Agriculture Information Bulletin, No. 765-9 (June, 2001).
aAs a percentage of grain production.


Outside of Africa, very few studies of the im-
the social and physical environment may contrib-
pact of HIV/AIDS on agriculture are currently
ute to lessening the impact. For example, a study
available. This may be a result of the lower HIV
conducted in Thailand reached the conclusion that
prevalence in Asia and Latin America and the
one third of the rural families affected by AIDS
lower percentage of employment in the agricul-
experienced a halving of their agriculture output
tural sector, which may lead to a lower impact.
(UNAIDS, 2000c).
Nonetheless, it is still important to conduct studies

in those regions to investigate the likely impact of
Another study in Thailand of the impact of
HIV/AIDS on agriculture and the ways in which
AIDS on rural families showed that the agricul-

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
64
The Impact of AIDS

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Box. Key points on the socio-economic impact of HIV/AIDS on agriculture and rural development

The following factors should be borne in mind when analysing the impact of AIDS in rural areas:

• What distinguishes HIV/AIDS from other fatal diseases is that (a) it primarily affects the most pro-
ductive age group of men and women between 15 and 49 years—the main breadwinners and heads of
households raising families and supporting the elderly—and their children; (b) its full impact is revealed
only gradually (given a median survival period of around 9 years in developing countries); and (c) there is
no cure while drugs that can prolong life are not available to the large majority of infected people in de-
veloping countries.
• The stigma attached to HIV/AIDS is a distinguishing characteristic of the epidemic with adverse
consequences for response measures. As a result of this stigma, it is more difficult to address HIV/AIDS
than other diseases.
• Countries in Southern and Eastern Africa have increasing urban-to-rural equalization of HIV
prevalence. Moreover, given the predominantly rural composition of many of these countries, in terms of
absolute numbers, the number of people living with HIV/AIDS may be higher in rural than in urban areas.
• The impact of HIV/AIDS is cross-sectoral and systemic. Agriculture is a dynamic, integrated and
interdependent system of productive and other components operating through a network of interrelated
subsectors, institutions and rural households with linkages at every level of activity. The efficiency and ef-
fectiveness of each subsector, institution and household depends, to a large extent, on the capacity in other
parts of the system. If this capacity is eroded through HIV, then the system’s ability to function will be
diminished.
• The impact of HIV/AIDS on agricultural production systems and rural livelihoods must be dis-
aggregated into its spatial and temporal dimensions. Geographic and ethnic factors, gender, age, agro-
ecological conditions and livelihood strategies play a role on the impact of HIV/AIDS on agricultural pro-
duction and livelihood systems.
• HIV/AIDS disproportionately affects sectors that are highly labour-intensive or have large num-
bers of mobile or migratory workers, including agriculture, transportation and mining.
• The magnitude of the epidemic is such that one can no longer categorize households as afflicted, af-
fected and unaffected. Nearly all households within a community are likely to be directly or indirectly
impacted by the epidemic.
• It has been argued that those rural people whose activities are not counted by standard measure-
ments of economic performance and productivity are among the most vulnerable to the impact of
HIV/AIDS. The effects of the epidemic on the resources, time and labour of those working in subsistence
agriculture, in rural households (particularly women) and in the informal sector are for the most part in-
visible in quantitative terms.
• The cost of HIV/AIDS is largely borne by rural communities. Many HIV-infected urban dwellers
return to their village of origin when they fall ill. Rural households (particularly women) provide most of
the care for AIDS patients. In addition, food, medical care costs and funeral expenses are primarily borne
by rural families.
• The burden of the socio-economic impact of HIV/AIDS disproportionately affects rural women.
Widows tend to become poorer as they lose access to land, property, inputs, credit and support services.
HIV/AIDS stigmatization compounds their situation further, as assistance from the extended family and
the community—their only safety net—is often severed. Widowers tend to remarry soon after losing their
wives, thus cushioning their families from AIDS impacts.
• The impact of HIV/AIDS on children is severe as widespread orphanhood and fosterage are bring-
ing the coping mechanisms of many extended families to the breaking point. Withdrawal from school, a
decrease in food intake, a decline in inherited assets and less attention from caretakers are among the ad-
verse effects of the epidemic on children.


Excerpt from D. Topouzis, Addressing the Impact of HIV/AIDS on Ministries of Agriculture: Focus on Eastern and Southern Africa
(Rome, FAO; and Geneva, UNAIDS, 2003).

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

The Impact of AIDS
65

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tural families and the poorest families in the
The future impact of HIV/AIDS on agricul-
northern provinces of Thailand, where more AIDS
ture will depend, among other things, on finding
cases were found, were also the most vulnerable
ways to reduce the amount of labour required,
to the economic impact on agriculture. The study
including introducing less labour-intensive meth-
found that the economic impact of an adult AIDS
ods of production and increasing yields with non-
death was sizeable despite all the coping strategies
labour inputs. In many of the countries most af-
employed. The least able to cope were the poorest
fected by HIV/AIDS, the agriculture sector was
and the least educated agricultural workers (Pita-
already under stress from desertification and gov-
yanon, Kongsin and Janjaroen, 1997).
ernment neglect of the traditional farming sector.

The epidemic is intensifying labour shortages,
3. Gender implications
increasing malnutrition and adding to the burden

of rural women, especially those who head farm
households.
HIV/AIDS frequently has severe conse-

quences for rural widows of AIDS victims. In
The major findings of the chapter are as fol-
sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, women contribute
lows:
to more than half the food production and are usu-

ally involved in the most labour-intensive farming
• The HIV/AIDS epidemic has led to
activities (UNAIDS, 2002). However, in areas
significant reductions in food produc-
where women are not permitted to inherit prop-
tion in AIDS-affected households. In
erty, they may lose access to land and other assets
two villages in Burkina Faso, for exam-
when their husband dies (FAO and UNAIDS,
ple, revenues from agricultural produc-
2003). In some cases, the cultural division of la-
tion declined by 25-50 per cent as a re-
bour makes it impossible for women to assume
sult of AIDS. The Government of
the farming tasks previously performed by their
Swaziland reported a 54 per cent drop
husbands, and they are forced to abandon farming.
in agricultural production in AIDS-
Inequality in access to credit, employment, educa-
affected households.
tion and information all make women more vul-

nerable to the negative impacts of HIV/AIDS
• HIV/AIDS has caused a decline in the
(Stokes, 2003). Moreover, the stigma of the dis-
supply of labour for food and live-
ease may inhibit widows from seeking community
stock production. The decline is
and extended-family support, which are vital
caused by the illness and deaths of peo-
safety nets in rural areas.
ple living with AIDS and by the time

spent by household members in caring
C. CONCLUSIONS
for sick relatives. In the United Repub-
lic of Tanzania, for example, a study

found that a woman whose husband was
The evidence with respect to the impact of
sick spent 45 per cent less time on agri-
HIV/AIDS on agriculture remains scattered and
cultural tasks than a woman whose hus-
incomplete. Most studies cover small areas, and
band was healthy. Even larger declines
many do not include a control or comparison
have been documented for Ethiopia.
group of households not affected by HIV/AIDS.

Moreover, little is known about the effects of the
• HIV/AIDS has caused shifts of
epidemic over time. Nonetheless, the current evi-
production from cash crops to food
dence demonstrates that HIV/AIDS is having a
crops in AIDS-affected households.
crushing effect on agricultural production and the
The change has resulted in lower
economic viability of AIDS-affected households
household incomes and a lack of funds
in diverse areas of Africa. HIV/AIDS is also hav-
to buy non-food essentials or non-
ing a serious impact on commercial agricultural
labour inputs necessary to maintain ag-
enterprises.
ricultural yields.


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
66
The Impact of AIDS

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• The HIV/AIDS epidemic is leading to
mented, for example, in Kenya, farmers
a loss of knowledge about farming
who die of AIDS do not live long
methods and a reduction in skilled
enough to pass on their know-how to
and experienced labour. As docu-
subsequent generations.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division

The Impact of AIDS
67

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Document Outline

• A. Conceptual framework for the impact of HIV/AIDS on agriculture
• Figure10. Conceptual framework for the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on agriculture
  • • • Production loss
      • Annual production growth
        • Percentage
  • Eastern Africa
    • C. Conclusions

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