The IPPNW/GfS Report "Health Effects of Chernobyl"

Gesellschaft für
German Affi liate of International Physicians
for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW)
Strahlenschutz e.V.



Health Effects of Chernobyl



25 years after

the reactor catastrophe


Advance Copy
(embargoed till April 8)
April 2011










IPPNW
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Tel ++49-30-69 80 74-0
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Internet: www.tschernobyl-folgen.de
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Tel. ++49-30-4493736,
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Email: Pfl ugbeil.KvT@t-online.de
Internet: www.gfstrahlenschutz.de

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Health effects of Chernobyl | IPPNW and GFS Report
April 2011

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Authors:
Dr. rer. nat. Sebastian Pflugbeil, Society for Radiation Protection
Henrik Paulitz, IPPNW
Dr. med. Angelika Claussen, IPPNW
Prof. Dr. Inge Schmitz-Feuerhake, Society for Radiation Protection
With the support of Strahlentelex information service

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Health effects of Chernobyl | IPPNW and GFS Report
April 2011

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Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................5
Note on the unreliability of official data published by WHO and IAEA ..................................9
What IPPNW and the Society for Radiation Protection are calling for .................................10
1. Introduction .............................................................................................................12
Excursus: Key data from the Chernobyl Catastrophe ......................................................14
2. Liquidators ..............................................................................................................17
2.1 Premature aging process as a result of radiation exposure........................................19
2.2 Cancer and leukaemia ..........................................................................................21
2.3 Damage to the nervous system ..............................................................................22
2.4 Psychological disorders ........................................................................................23
2.5 Heart and circulatory diseases ..............................................................................25
3.4 Other illnesses ....................................................................................................25
2.7 Children of liquidators..........................................................................................26
3. Infant mortality ........................................................................................................28
3.1 The Chernobyl region ...........................................................................................28
3.2 Germany .............................................................................................................29
3.3 Other countries....................................................................................................30
Excursus: Miscarriages and pregnancy terminations ......................................................31
4. Genetic and teratogenic damage (malformations).........................................................34
4.1 The Chernobyl region ...........................................................................................35
4.2 Germany .............................................................................................................38
Excursus: Chernobyl effects on animals in Europe.........................................................41
4.3 Other countries....................................................................................................43
5. Thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases ...................................................................45
6.1 The Chernobyl region ...........................................................................................45
5.2 Germany .............................................................................................................51
5.3 Other countries....................................................................................................51
6. All cancers and leukaemia .........................................................................................52
6.1 The Chernobyl region ...........................................................................................52
6.2 Germany .............................................................................................................58
6.3 Other countries....................................................................................................59
7. Other illnesses following Chernobyl ............................................................................61
Excursus: Consequences of a super-GAU in Germany ....................................................64

* see footnote on page 7

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Abbreviations

Bq – Becquerel describes the activity of radioactive material and gives the number of nucleii
that decay per second.
ERR
the excess Relative Risk describes the risk of falling ill.
Gy – Gray
Gray measures the energy dose that ionising radiation emits.
1 Gy = 1 J/kg
IAEA
International Atomic Energy Agency.
ICRP
International Commission on Radiological Protection
man Sv
collective dose = number of people (man) x average dose (Sv).
RERF
Radiation Effects Research Foundation
Sv – Sievert
a sievert is the unit of measurement for the radiation dose. The limit
officially considered in Germany to be safe is 0.001 Sv (1 mSv) per annum.
UNSCEAR
United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation.
WHO
World Health Organisation.

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Map of 137Cs deposition levels in Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine as of December 1989
SOURCE:
International Advisory Committee. The International Chernobyl Project.
Technical Report. IAEA, Vienna (1991)

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Caesium-137 contaminated areas in Ukraine
SOURCE:
De Cort M, Dubois G, Fridman ShD, Germenchuk MG, Izrael YuA, Janssens A, Jones AR,
Kelly GN, Kvasnikova EV, Matveenko II, Nazarov IM,.Pokumeiko YuM, Sitak VA, Stukin
ED, Tabachny LYa. Tsaturov YuS and Avdyushin SI (1998) Atlas of Caesium Deposition
on Europe after the Chernobyl Accident. EUR Report 16733. Office for Official Publications
of the European Communities, Luxembourg

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Executive Summary
“The atomic industry could take a catastrophe
like Chernobyl every year.”
Hans Blix, 1986 in his capacity
as director of the IAEA


This paper evaluates studies that contain plausible indications of health damage caused by
the Chernobyl catastrophe. The authors of this paper attach importance to the selection of
methodically accurate and comprehensible analyses. Due to the already mentioned
methodical difficulties, it is not our aim to present the “right” statistics in contrast to the
obviously wrong ones given by the IAEA, since these can never be found. They can only supply
us with indications as to the diversity and extent of the health effects we should be dealing
with when we talk about the health effects of Chernobyl.

Populations which were particularly exposed to radiation by the Chernobyl catastrophe
a. Clean-up workers (liquidators):
830,000 (Yablokov 2010)
b. Evacuees from the 30 km zone and other highly contaminated zones:
350,400 (Yablokov, 2010)
c. The population of the heavily irradiated zones in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine:
8,300,000 (Yablokov, 2010)
d. European population in zones with minor exposure to radiation:
600.000.000 (Fairlie, 2007)

Disease/health damage is to be expected as a result of additional exposure to radiation
because of Chernobyl
a. Cancer. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the latency period for many types of
cancer is 25 – 30 years. At present we are only just seeing cases of thyroid cancers,
breast cancers and brain tumours In the population. But liquidators have also
developed cancer in numerous other organs: the prostate gland, stomach, cancer of
the blood, thyroid cancer
b. Genetic changes: malformations, stillbirths, the lack of children
c. Non-cancerous diseases. Many organ systems could be affected; brain disorders;
accelerated aging process; psychological disorders

Summary of findings
1. The effects of low–level radiation (0 – 500 mSv) were systematically monitored and
investigated. In particular, the genetic effects were unclear prior to Chernobyl. This
research has been augmented by research on cells, as well as on the molecular
structures inside the cells. Despite this, the ICRP continues to give a dose limit of

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100 mSv for teratogenic damage. This claim has been invalidated by numerous
studies.
2. Non-targeted effects, such as genomic instability and the bystander effect have been
found, i.e. change in the genomes of cells not directly affected by radiation.
3. The lower the radiation level, the longer the latency period before the outbreak of
cancer (established as early as 2000 by Pierce and Preston in the context of the RERF
studies)
4. The genomic instability is passed on in the genes and increases exponentially with
each generation. Numerous research findings showing chromosome aberrations in the
children of liquidators and mothers who were not exposed to radiation are available in
the research centres of all three affected republics (Moscow, Minsk, Kiev). First signs
of the cumulation effect could be cases of thyroid cancer among the children of
irradiated parents. However, this is not yet certain.
5. It was found that the incidence of non-cancerous disease had increased; mainly
cardiovascular and stomach diseases, and cases of neurological-psychiatric illness
were found to be a somatic effect of low-level radiation. The latter was observed
mainly during research on liquidators and their children.
6. According to figures given by the Russian authorities, more than 90% of the
liquidators have become invalids; i.e. at least 740,000 severely ill liquidators. They
are aging prematurely, and a higher than average number have developed various
forms of cancer, leukaemia, somatic and neurological psychiatric illnesses. A very
large number have cataracts. Due to long latency periods, a significant increase in
cancers is to be expected in the coming years.
7. Independent studies estimate that 112,000 to 125,000 liquidators will have died by
2005.
8. Available studies estimated the number of fatalities amongst infants as a result of
Chernobyl to be about 5000.
9. Genetic and teratogenic damage (malformations) have also risen significantly not only
in the three directly affected countries but also in many European countries. In
Bavaria alone, between 1000 and 3000 additional birth deformities have been found
since Chernobyl. We fear that in Europe more than 10,000 severe abnormalities could
have been radiation induced. The estimated figure of unreported cases is high, given
that even the IAEA came to the conclusion that there were between 100,000 and
200,000 abortions in Western Europe because of the Chernobyl catastrophe.
10. According to UNSCEAR between 12,000 and 83,000 children were born with
congenital deformations in the region of Chernobyl, and around 30,000 to 207,000
genetically damaged children worldwide. Only 10% of the overall expected damage
can be seen in the first generation.
11. In the aftermath of Chernobyl not only was there an increase in the incidence of
stillbirths and malformations in Europe, but there was also a shift in the ratio of male
and female embryos. Significantly fewer girls were born after 1986.

A paper by Kristina Voigt, Hagen Scherb also showed that after 1968, in the aftermath
of Chernobyl, around 800,000 fewer children were born in Europe than one might
have expected. Scherb estimated that, as the paper did not cover all countries, the
overall number of “missing” children after Chernobyl could be about one million.
Similar effects were also observed following above-ground nuclear weapons tests.

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12. In Belarus alone, over 12,000 people have developed thyroid cancer since the
catastrophe (Pavel Bespalchuk, 2007). According to a WHO prognosis, in the Belarus
region of Gomel alone, more than 50,000 children will develop thyroid cancer during
their lives. If one adds together all age groups then about 100,000 cases of thyroid
cancer have to be reckoned with in the Gomel region.
13. On the basis of observed cases of thyroid cancer in Belarus and Ukraine, Malko
(2007) calculated the number of future cases that might be expected, and then added
the radiation factor. He arrived at the figure of 92,627 cases of thyroid cancer
between 1986 and 2056. This calculation does not include cases of thyroid cancer
among liquidators.
14. After Chernobyl, infant mortality rates in Sweden, Finland and Norway increased by a
significant 15.8 percent compared to the trend for the period 1976 to 2006. Alfred
Körblein calculated that for the period 1987 to 1992 an additional 1,209 (95 %
confidence interval: 875 to 1,556) infants had died.
15. In Germany, scientists found a significant increase in trisomy 21 in newly-born
children in the nine months following Chernobyl. This trend was especially marked in
West Berlin and South Germany.
16. Orlov and Shaversky reported on a series of 188 brain tumours amongst children
under three in Ukraine. Before Chernobyl (1981 to 1985) 9 cases were counted, not
even two a year. In the period 1986-2002 the number rose to 179 children diagnosed
with brain tumours – more than ten per year.
17. In the more contaminated areas of South Germany a significant cluster of a very rare
type of tumour was found in children, so.called neuroblastoma.
18. A paper published by the Chernobyl Ministry in Ukraine registered a multiplication of
the cases of disease of the endocrine system (25-fold from 1987 to 1992), the
nervous system (6-fold), the circulatory system (44-fold), the digestive organs (60-
fold), the cutaneous and subcutaneous tissue (50 times higher), the muscular-skeletal
system and psychological dysfunctions (53-fold). The number of healthy people among
evacuees sank from 1987 to 1996 from 59 % to 18%. Among the population of the
contaminated areas from 52% to 21% and –particularly dramatic - among the children
who were not directly affected themselves by Chernobyl fallout but their parents were
exposed to high levels of radiation, the numbers of healthy children sank from 81% to
30% in 1996.
19. It has been reported for several years that type I diabetes (insulin-dependent diabetes
mellitus) has risen sharply amongst children and adolescents.
20. Non-cancerous diseases greatly outnumber the more spectacular cases of leukaemia
and cancer.

Up until today, there has unfortunately been no conclusive overview of the changes in the
health condition of the whole of the affected population in the region of Chernobyl, not to
mention the lack of an overview of the catastrophe for the people in the Northern hemisphere.
The numbers referred to here may seem on the one hand to be terribly high, on the other hand
rather low. But it has to be taken into account that nearly all of the collated studies dealt with
relatively small sections of the population. Even supposedly slight changes in rates of sickness
can signify serious health damage and a large extent of human suffering when they are
extrapolated onto a larger population group.

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Conclusion
Even though the lack of large-scale independent long-term studies does not permit a complete
picture to be made of the current situation, a number of trends can be shown: a high mortality
rate and an almost 100 % morbidity rate can be observed among people, such as liquidators,
who were exposed to high radiation levels. 25 years after the reactor catastrophe cancer and
other diseases have emerged on a scale that, owing to the long latency period, might have
appeared inconceivable immediately following the catastrophe.
The number of non-cancerous diseases is far more dramatic than had ever before been
imagined. “New” symptoms, such as the premature aging of liquidators, raise questions that
research is still unable to answer.
By 2050 thousands more cases of illnesses will be diagnosed that will have been caused by
the Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe. The delay between cause and noticeable physical reaction
is insidious. Chernobyl is far from over.
Particularly tragic is the fate of the thousands of children who were born dead or died in
infancy, who were born with malformations and hereditary diseases, or who are forced to live
with diseases they would not have developed under normal circumstances.
The genetic defects caused by Chernobyl will continue to trouble the world for a long time to
come – most of the effects will not become apparent until the second or third generation.
Even if the extent of the health effects is not yet clear, it can still be predicted that the
suffering brought about by the nuclear disaster in Fukushima is, and will be, of a similar
magnitude.

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