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What will be the impact of water scarcity on food security?

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What will be the impact of water scarcity on food security? COLIN CHARTRES International Water Management InstituteCONTENTS• A history lesson• Reasons for increasing water scarcity• Adaptive responses• Policy responses• A call to actionWater for Food – 1 liter per calorieLiters of WaterDaily Drinking Water2 – 5 Liters of WaterDaily Household Use20 – 500 Liters of Water1kg of Grain500 to 2,000 Liters of Evapotranspiration (ET)Livestock products (meat, 5,000 to 15,000 Liters of ETmilk)2.5b more mouths means finding another 2500 - 5000 cubic km of water!A Middle Eastern History Lesson (with acknowledgements to Coucier et al., 2005)Mid 19501970sLJRB (cont.)2000sMid 2020sLJRV - historyIn 60 years:• 10,000 – 46,000 ha of irrigation• All surface water committed• Groundwater being severely mined• Flows into Dead Sea reduced by c.80%The question is have the development benefits outweighed the environmental costs?There has been some very dubious use of water for poorly returning agriculture.An Indian History LessonThe Indian Groundwater StoryTransformation of Indian irrigation net area (million ha) by irrigation source (after Shah, 2009)1999- 180018501885-861938-391970-712000Government canals<1~12.89.824.231.2Wells2.02.63.55.313.953.6Other sources4.04.43.06.46.86.7All sources679.321.544.991.5Irrigation area as % of area sown1010.312.42531.453.5India’s total available water resources are 1086 km3BaUNCIWRDScenariohigh demandSecklerRosegrantDriversUnit2000 iprojections iiScenario iiet al.iiet al ii202520502025205020252025PopulationMillion1,0071,3891,5831,3831,5811,2731,352- % urban population%28375145614343Total calorie supply/person/dayKcal2,4952,7753,000--2,812-Total grain demand/person/yearKg200210238231312215215Gross irrigated areaMha76105117981469076Total grain availability/person/yearKg208213240242312216206Net irrigation requirementKm3245313346359iv536iv323332Domestic water demand/personm3/day33456445703131Industrial water demand/personm3/day4266102485155Total water demandKm36808339007731,069811822A Pending Crisis for India• India is rapidly running low on water resources• Seckler et al. (1999) warned that a quarter of India’s food harvest is at risk if the country fails to manage it groundwater resources properly. • The transformation of its irrigation system from surface to groundwater has confounded good planning• Shah describes the current groundwater irrigation set up as “atomistic” and anarchic• Government control and regulation is extremely limited• Many aquifers are already over exploited• A National River Linking Program has been proposed, but will be expensive and environmentally contentiousDocument Outline